Russia could attack Nato ‘next year’ if there are no security guarantees, Zelenskyy tells reporters
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has just been speaking to reporters at the Munich Security Conference, presenting a strong case for security guarantees that need to be given to Ukraine as part of any peace talks with Russia.
He appeared to at one point suggest that Putin’s Russia could attack Nato next year if it isn’t deterred by security guarantees, but heavily caveated that view saying “that is what I think, I don’t know.”
Here are the key quotes from his briefing:
On Trump’s comments about US-Russia talks in Munich:
I don’t know about it, but maybe somebody knows more than me.
On order of any peace talks:
As I said, the order [of talks] is United States, Europe, then Russia …
On his intelligence on Putin’s plans:
He started the sentence in Ukrainian saying that he is not sure if Putin would stop at Ukraine if there are no sound security guarantees, before switching to English:
They can go forward to Ukraine, or they will go to Poland or to the Baltics, and I think this is his idea. And I think that all I’ve got from intelligence … is that he’s preparing the war against Nato countries next year. That is what I think, I don’t know, I don’t have 100%, … but God bless, we will stop this crazy guy.
On meeting with JD Vance:
I think it’s important to speak and to have meeting. … I’m very open for this meeting, and we have [our] agenda.
But I said to president Trump, with all respect to all his team, there are some decisions which can be only on the level of presidents because it’s about security of our country.
Key events
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Putin likes to disrupt Munich conference – analysis
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Munich Security Conference to start shortly
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Update on Pope Francis
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What Ukrainians think about all of this?
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UK Starmer spoke with Trump and his UK envoy Burnett, discussed US trip
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Ukraine on ‘irreversible’ path to Nato, and no peace talks without it, UK Starmer tells Zelenskyy
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Russian invasion of Ukraine – maps
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‘Ready to talk any time,’ Zelenskyy says, but rules out recognising occupied territory as Russian
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Russia could attack Nato ‘next year’ if there are no security guarantees, Zelenskyy tells reporters
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‘You don’t have to trust’ Putin to negotiate, Hegseth says
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Hegseth says welcome in Poland makes him want to welcome more US troops there
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Hegseth ‘does not believe’ US troops could be deployed to Ukraine, but leaves it open for negotiations
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Hegseth hints at European involvement in Ukraine talks, but defends earlier statements
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‘Diplomacy is important, but ultimately … hard power matters,’ US Hegseth says
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Poland is ‘the model ally,’ Hegseth says praising high defence spending
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US defence secretary Hegseth speaks in Warsaw
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36 injured in Munich attack as police suspect Islamist motivation, police say
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36 injured in suspected Munich car ramming attack, police say
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Munich police conference on suspended car ramming attack underway
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Town-hall election debate in Germany – catch up
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Pope Francis hospitalised with bronchitis, Vatican says
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Details on Zelenskyy’s meetings with US leaders
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EU accuses Trump’s US of undermining free trade rules, says it would respond ‘firmly’
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Trump’s ‘America first’ stance sold out Ukraine – analysis
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European reactions to US Hegseth’s comments on Ukraine – analysis
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France’s Macron warns against ‘capitulation’ to Russia’s demands on Ukraine
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Update from Munich on suspected car ramming attack
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The day ahead
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Morning opening: We have seen it before
German president Steinmeier starts with a tribute to the victims of the Munich attack yesterday as he says “a dark shadow has been cast over the city of Munich,” and expresses his sympathy with all affected.
The Munich Security Conference chair, Christoph Heusgen, opens with a speech pointedly criticising Russian president Vladimir Putin for “destroying the European security architecture.”
He chose confrontation over cooperation, and unfortunately, during the coming days, we have to once again, deal with Putin’s war against Ukraine.
He introduces German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier as the next speaker.
The event starts with a moment of silence for the casualties of Thursday’s car ramming attack in Munich.
The latest update we’ve had from the police this morning (11:37) is that at least 36 people are injured, including some critically.
The attack is not believed to be linked with the conference.
Putin likes to disrupt Munich conference – analysis
Patrick Wintour
Diplomatic editor
The start of the Munich security conference has a habit of being disrupted by a display of power by Vladimir Putin.
In 2022, the transatlantic security establishment gathered in the knowledge that Putin was days from launching his attack on Kyiv.
In February 2024, the opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in disputed circumstances in a Russian jail and this year Russia’s leader is on the brink of opening talks with Donald Trump that many analysts predict will end with Russia not just gaining Ukrainian territory but dismembering Ukraine as a sovereign independent state.
Munich Security Conference to start shortly
Jakub Krupa
The Munich Security Conference will start on the Main Stage shortly, and we will see EU’s Ursula von der Leyen and US vice-president JD Vance speak there, among others.
I will bring you all the news lines here.
Update on Pope Francis
Earlier today we reported that Pope Francis has been hospitalised as he continues to battle bronchitis (11:03).
Our Rome correspondent Angela Giuffrida has this latest update for us:
Pope cancels events over the next few days, including a Jubilee audience tomorrow, while mass on Sunday will be done by Cardinal José de Mendonça.
A visit to Cinecitta, the Rome film studios, on Monday has also been cancelled.
Reuters says that the pope held several meetings on Friday before going to hospital, including with Slovak prime minister Robert Fico.
Another one was with Mark Thompson, CEO of the CNN news channel. The pope was “mentally alert but struggling to speak for extended periods due to breathing difficulties,” CNN later reported.
What Ukrainians think about all of this?
While some Kyiv residents express relief over possible end to war, others predict further Russian attacks in future.
Anger and betrayal were common emotions among those questioned on the streets of central Kyiv on Thursday. In the three months since Donald Trump’s election win, many in Ukraine held on to a hope that things would not be as bad as some predicted under the new president.
On Wednesday evening, it seemed these hopes were exposed as illusions.
Shaun Walker and Artem Mazhulin report from Kyiv.
UK Starmer spoke with Trump and his UK envoy Burnett, discussed US trip
What is interesting about Starmer’s call with Zelenskyy this morning is that it appears to have been made hours after the UK prime minister spoke with US president Donald Trump.
In a statement released this morning, Downing Street said that Starmer hosted US special envoy to the UK Mark Burnett last night and during the meeting, “he took a call from President Trump and discussed his forthcoming visit to the US.”
The readout doesn’t mention specifically Ukraine, but… surely?
Ukraine on ‘irreversible’ path to Nato, and no peace talks without it, UK Starmer tells Zelenskyy
British prime minister Keir Starmer spoke with Zelenskyy on the phone earlier today, and his office said in a readout that he “reiterated the UK’s commitment to Ukraine being on an irreversible path to Nato.”
Starmer was also “unequivocal that there could be no talks about Ukraine, without Ukraine,” the note said.
You can read it in full here.
Russian invasion of Ukraine – maps
For context on Zelenskyy’s comments about the territory occupied by Russia, here is the latest state of play.
It shows that any deal freezing the frontline would essentially leave Russia in control of a significant part of Ukraine, which is what Zelenskyy ruled out.
And here is how these lines have changed over the years of this conflict:
(Thanks to our amazing graphics team for the visuals.)
‘Ready to talk any time,’ Zelenskyy says, but rules out recognising occupied territory as Russian
Patrick Wintour
Diplomatic editor
Speaking in Munich before meeting a Trump delegation Zelenskyy also said: “I have told President Trump that I am ready to talk at any time – without conditions. We are prepared to discuss everything, from troop deployments to Nato.”
He said his only red line was his refusal to recognise occupied Ukrainian territory as Russian.
“Legally, we will never recognise these territories as ‘Russian’ or anything else – they are Ukrainian. That is a firm red line; it’s in our constitution. And only the people of Ukraine can decide this,” he said.
He also added security guarantees for Ukraine were as important if not more important than formal Nato membership.
He explained:
“Today, neither America nor President Trump is willing to discuss Nato. They believe Ukraine cannot be part of Nato. They see Ukraine’s Nato aspirations, as enshrined in our constitution, as a key reason for Russia’s occupation.”
Zelenskyy also said that Ukraine does not rule out the possibility of adjusting its approach to Nato membership.
He said: “Do we want to be in Nato? Yes. But is it just about the word ‘Nato’? No – it’s about security guarantees.”
In this case, he stressed, the main issue would be the specifics of those security guarantees, including the parameters of a peacekeeping mission and the size of Ukraine’s military.
If Ukraine does not join Nato, Zelenskyy estimates that its army would need to grow to 1.5 million troops. Putin effectively wants to see the Ukrainian army disarmed.
Russia could attack Nato ‘next year’ if there are no security guarantees, Zelenskyy tells reporters
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has just been speaking to reporters at the Munich Security Conference, presenting a strong case for security guarantees that need to be given to Ukraine as part of any peace talks with Russia.
He appeared to at one point suggest that Putin’s Russia could attack Nato next year if it isn’t deterred by security guarantees, but heavily caveated that view saying “that is what I think, I don’t know.”
Here are the key quotes from his briefing:
On Trump’s comments about US-Russia talks in Munich:
I don’t know about it, but maybe somebody knows more than me.
On order of any peace talks:
As I said, the order [of talks] is United States, Europe, then Russia …
On his intelligence on Putin’s plans:
He started the sentence in Ukrainian saying that he is not sure if Putin would stop at Ukraine if there are no sound security guarantees, before switching to English:
They can go forward to Ukraine, or they will go to Poland or to the Baltics, and I think this is his idea. And I think that all I’ve got from intelligence … is that he’s preparing the war against Nato countries next year. That is what I think, I don’t know, I don’t have 100%, … but God bless, we will stop this crazy guy.
On meeting with JD Vance:
I think it’s important to speak and to have meeting. … I’m very open for this meeting, and we have [our] agenda.
But I said to president Trump, with all respect to all his team, there are some decisions which can be only on the level of presidents because it’s about security of our country.
‘You don’t have to trust’ Putin to negotiate, Hegseth says
Hegseth is also asked about his expectations about US president Trump’s talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin.
He says that if Nato truly increases its capabilities and spending, this will deter Putin from being emboldened.
Is there trust there? No.
You don’t have to operate under a position of trust in order to negotiate a deal. But again, I’m the secretary of defence, it’s not my job to read the mind of Vladimir Putin.
President Trump will be the one at the table with Zelenskyy and Putin.
You don’t have to trust somebody in order to negotiate with them, but as Ronald Reagan said, if you don’t trust, you need to verify.
And so there will be a follow-up in ensuring that whatever peace is negotiated is a lasting and enduring peace.
(Hate to be the ‘uum, akshually’ guy, but that Reagan quote is originally a Russian proverb that the US president was taught and adopted as a way of getting to the Russians.)
That concludes their press conference.
Hegseth says welcome in Poland makes him want to welcome more US troops there
Hegseth also gets asked about whether there are any plans to reduce the US involvement in Europe.
He repeats that “America is committed to the Nato alliance.”
“The American presence is robust, and it has been and that partnership is real and important. And the troops that we have here in Poland [are] an investment in that, a recognition of that,” he says.
In comments that will probably make lots of Polish leaders’ days much better, he says:
And frankly, the invitation we receive here, if anything, would make me want to welcome more troops to Poland.
… before he hastily adds…
That’s not a policy statement. That’s just how I feel. The welcome is warm.
But on a more serious note he adds:
Our message is so stark to our European allies: now is the time to invest, because you can’t make an assumption that America’s presence will last forever.
Hegseth ‘does not believe’ US troops could be deployed to Ukraine, but leaves it open for negotiations
Hegseth gets asked about any potential deployment of US troops to Ukraine, and strikes a similar tone.
He repeats that he “does not believe, as a part of those negotiations, that US troops will be on the ground.”
But, again, caveats that heavily:
Negotiations happen. The president has latitude, and what happens is those negotiations is his prerogative.
