Morning opening: What does Vladimir Putin want?
Jakub Krupa
On Monday, several European leaders lined up to criticise Vladimir Putin for Russia’s continuing attacks on Ukraine, and sabotaging the peace efforts of the Trump administration in the US.
But the White House view remains distinctively different.
Speaking alongside El Salvador president Nayib Bukele, Trump once again took aim at Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy instead, saying:
“The mistake was letting the war happen. If Biden were competent. And if Zelenskyy were competent — and I don’t know that he is, we had a rough session with this guy over here.”
“You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles.”
On Putin, his tone was distinctively different as he argued:
“And you take a look at Putin — I’m not saying anybody’s an angel, but I will tell you, I went four years, and it wasn’t even a question. He would never — and I told him don’t do it. You’re not going to do it.”
Ultimately, he concluded that Biden, Zelenskyy and Putin are all at blame for the war:
“And Biden could have stopped it, and Zelenskyy could have stopped it, and Putin should have never started it. Everybody’s to blame.”
But perhaps even more revealing were comments by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, who was in Moscow last week.
Speaking on Fox News, Witkoff said he was confident after his latest five-hour “compelling” meeting with the Russians that a deal with Putin was “emerging”.
“Towards the end, we actually came up with – I’m going to say finally, but I don’t mean it in the way that we were waiting; I mean it in the way that it took a while for us to get to this place – what Putin’s request is to get to, have a permanent peace,” he said.
But in comments that are likely to spook European partners by signalling Putin’s broader security demands, he said the peace deal is “about the so-called five territories, but there’s so much more to it: there’s security protocols, there’s no Nato, Nato Article Five, I mean, it’s just a lot of detail attached to it.”
“It’s a complicated situation … rooted in … some real problematic things happening between the two countries and I think we might be on the verge of something that would be very, very important for the world at large,” he added.
Witkoff also added that he believed “there is a possibility to reshape the Russian-United States relationship through some very compelling commercial opportunities that I think give real stability to the region too.”
So, what, back to business as usual? That’s certainly what Putin wants.
It all increasingly makes it look, as our Russia expert Luke Harding put it, that “the truth is that America either wants Russia to win, or doesn’t care if Ukraine loses.”
On that depressing note…
It’s Tuesday, 15 April 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
Key events
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Macron to honour craftspeople who rebuilt Notre Dame
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EU could end penalties for companies that break Russian gas contracts
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France’s anti-terrorism prosecutor’s offices takes charge of investigation into prison attacks
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More than 1,000 sign academics’ petition against Hungarian constitutional changes targeting LGBTQ+ community
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European Commission ‘analysing’ Hungarian constitution amendments
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EU food, safety standards, digital regulation not part of negotiations with US, Commission says
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‘Significant joint efforts’ needed to resolve trade differences with US in 90 days, EU says
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No ‘clear outline’ of Ukraine deal, but political will is there, the Kremlin claims
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Merz’s Taurus comments spark optimism among Ukraine friends, draw ire from Moscow, frustration from domestic allies
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French justice minister to travel to Toulon after prisons attacked with automatic weapons
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Serbian students on final stretch of ‘Tour de Strasbourg’ to highlight corruption allegations
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Key questions for Ukraine’s European allies – analysis
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‘Not good for Europe to be security vassal of the US,’ JD Vance says
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Morning opening: What does Vladimir Putin want?
Macron to honour craftspeople who rebuilt Notre Dame
Elsewhere, French president Emmanuel Macron will bestow awards on around 100 craftspeople and officials who helped restore Notre Dame to its former glory after a fire nearly destroyed the beloved Paris cathedral six years ago, AFP reported.
The ceremony at the Élysée Palace will take place from early Tuesday evening, around the same time the devastating fire broke out at the Gothic masterpiece in 2019.
AFP noted that Macron will honour Philippe Jost, who headed the public organisation tasked with restoring the cathedral and was elevated to the rank of “commander” of the Legion of Honour, France’s highest national award.
Jost succeeded Jean-Louis Georgelin, the general who had been put in charge of overseeing the restoration but who died in 2023.
Georgelin was conferred with the Grand Cross of the Legion of Honour, the highest rank of the award established by Napoleon Bonaparte in 1802.
The architects Remi Fromont and Philippe Villeneuve will also be decorated.
Alongside them, nearly 100 civil servants, entrepreneurs and craftspeople will be awarded the Legion of Honour or the National Order of Merit, another top award established by Charles de Gaulle.
They represent around 2,000 people who took part in the restoration of the cathedral.
They come from “all the trades” and include carpenters, ironworkers, scaffolders, rope access workers, organ restorers and stained glass artisans, the French presidency said.
The Serbian students cycling towards Strasbourg that we reported on earlier today (10:51 and 10:56) are now back on the move on the final stage of their journey.
You can follow their finish live here – they are currently passing through a small town of Durmersheim in Germany, near the French border.
EU could end penalties for companies that break Russian gas contracts
Jennifer Rankin
The European Commission is considering plans that would allow European companies to break long-term Russian gas contracts without paying penalties to Moscow, it has been reported.
Citing three officials with knowledge of the plan, the Financial Times reported (£) that the commission was studying the possibility of allowing companies to declare force majeure, which would absolve importers of their obligations to pay penalty fees for ending contracts.
The plans are reported to be part of a roadmap on how the EU will rid itself of Russian fossil fuels by 2027, a document scheduled to be published on 6 May, following repeated delays.
A commission spokesperson declined to comment.
Full story:
France’s anti-terrorism prosecutor’s offices takes charge of investigation into prison attacks
Back to France, the country’s national anti-terrorism prosecutor’s office said it had taken charge of the investigation into attacks on several French prisons overnight that we reported earlier (11:07).
Reuters said that France’s DGSI national security agency will also be involved into the investigation into the attacks, the prosecutor said.
More than 1,000 sign academics’ petition against Hungarian constitutional changes targeting LGBTQ+ community
Ashifa Kassam
… and more than 1,200 people have signed a petition, launched by academics at Budapest’s Eötvös Loránd university, protesting against the Hungarian government’s ban on public events by the LGBTQ+ community.
On Monday, Hungary’s rightwing populist government, led by Viktor Orbán, voted through a constitutional amendment backing the ban, in what rights campaigners described as a “significant escalation” in the government’s efforts to chip away at human rights.
The university remains committed to inclusion, the petition noted. “As university lecturers and researchers, we protest against this curtailment of basic rights,” it said.
It also sought to highlight the worrying precedent set by the ban. “The government’s spurious claim, all too familiar from history, to protect our children sets the stage for the curtailment of the freedom of assembly of arbitrarily designated groups – in the first instance LGBTQI communities – as well as their surveillance and punishment.”
Staff at the internationally renowned university had decided to speak out as “many of our students and staff rightly feel threatened by discriminatory, arbitrary legislation and stigmatisation,” the petition noted.
The signatories said they would work to ensure that students or employees belonging to the LGBTQ+ community would feel free to speak up when it comes to matters concerning themselves or the wider university community.
“It is especially important to take this responsibility at a time when our institutions and communities are under increasing government pressure and similar attacks are taking place in other countries,” the petition said.
Rights campaigners have called on the European Commission to launch a procedure against the Hungarian government, arguing that the legal changes – believed to be the first of their kind in the EU’s modern history – are a breach of EU law.
(Asked about the next steps at the commission’s briefing, Hrncirova said she could not offer any timeline on this process. – Jakub)
European Commission ‘analysing’ Hungarian constitution amendments
Separately, European Commission spokesperson on equality Eva Hrncirova was asked about the executive’s view on the Hungarian constitutional amendment passed yesterday that campaigners described as a “significant escalation” in the government’s efforts to crack down on dissent and chip away at human rights.
She said the EU was “obviously aware” of the amendment, but needed time to “analyse the changes, because [they] cover several topics and we need to look at them very carefully to be able to see them from the perspective of the European law.”
Yesterday’s vote prompted further protests in Budapest against the decision, so let me bring you some pictures from that protest, and…
EU food, safety standards, digital regulation not part of negotiations with US, Commission says
And on trade talks with the US, the European Commission’s trade spokesperson Olof Gill just told reporters that the EU needed “an additional level of engagement from the US to keep the ball rolling forward.”
“Our offers are still clearly and plainly on the table, zero for zero tariffs on industrial products, including cars, and we’re willing to look at a range of other areas,” he said.
Responding to Trump’s comments that the EU “have got to come to the table, and they’re trying to,” Gill said: “Mr President, we are at the table,” as he rejected the suggestion that the EU exploits the US by saying “the facts do not support this claim.”
Pushed on what is being discussed, he said that – despite Trump’s longstanding frustration with EU regulations – “EU standards, particularly as they relate to food, health and safety, are sacrosanct.”
“That’s not part of the negotiation. It never will be, not with the US, not with anyone else,” he said.
He also added that “our regulation that applies to technology and digital markets, that’s not up for negotiation.”
These comments will particularly resonate with the US as there is growing anticipation that the EU should announce its first enforcement against Apple and Meta under the Digital Markets Act in the coming days and weeks.
‘Significant joint efforts’ needed to resolve trade differences with US in 90 days, EU says
Jennifer Rankin
The EU has said that “significant joint efforts will be needed” for a successful outcome to trade talks at the end of Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs.
The European Commission, which handles trade policy for the 27 EU member states, was reporting back on a meeting between its lead trade official Maroš Šefčovič and US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and US trade representative Jamieson Greer in Washington on Monday.
The account of the meeting from the commission suggested the US side had yet to bring much to the table.
The EU will continue to approach these talks in a constructive manner, with a view to identify areas of common interest. It is clear that significant joint efforts will be needed to achieve a successful outcome within the 90-day window.
The EU is doing its part. Now it is necessary for the US to define its position. As with every negotiation this must be a two-way street… With both sides bringing something to the table.”
Recap: The EU’s retaliatory action against US tariffs on steel and aluminum was due to be phased in from today [15 April], but the commission decided to hold back the counter strike to allow space for negotiations, in response to Trump’s pause on “reciprocal tariffs” for 90 days.
EU officials also went public last week with their offer for tariff-free transatlantic trade on cars and industrial goods, a proposal outlined in private on 19 February, according to the commission.
The commission described Monday’s meeting as a “scoping exercise” that explored areas of a potential deal.
Some EU insiders have questioned whether Lutnick and Greer are calling the shots, with Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro and the president himself, seen in the driving seat of trade policy.
No ‘clear outline’ of Ukraine deal, but political will is there, the Kremlin claims
We are now getting some lines from the Kremlin, responding to US reactions and comments on US-Russia talks overnight that I brought you earlier (9:23).
The Kremlin declined to offer a precise time frame for further talks on Ukraine settlement, but insisted there is political will to move towards an agreement, even if there is no “clear outline” of what it could cover.
But, echoing some of Witkoff’s comments, it played up the “enormous potential” for US-Russia cooperation, which it argued “can help stabilise the world.”
Merz’s Taurus comments spark optimism among Ukraine friends, draw ire from Moscow, frustration from domestic allies
Deborah Cole
Meanwhile in Germany, comments by presumptive new German chancellor Friedrich Merz this week that he was open to sending long-requested Taurus missiles to Kyiv sparked optimism among friends of Ukraine, ire in Moscow and a not-so-fast from a key coalition partner in Berlin.
Merz, who is expected to take office on 6 May, said on a Sunday night talkshow when asked about the long-range missiles that unlike current leader Olaf Scholz, he would consider sending them as part of a wider package of support agreed with European allies.
He also mentioned that they could be used to target the Kerch Bridge, the most important land link between Russia and the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula.
Popular Social Democrat Boris Pistorius, who is expected to stay on as defence minister in Merz’s new cabinet, has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest German supporters. He nevertheless took umbrage at his incoming boss’s hints that the long-range missiles for Ukraine were any kind of done deal.
Pistorius told a party event in Hanover that repeated hints he had secretly supported Taurus shipments to Ukraine all along were false. “I never said that,” he said.
He added that there were good reasons for supplying the missiles, but “also many arguments, good arguments, against them”.
Pistorius also raised doubts about Merz’s comments about coordination with European allies.
“I don’t know a European partner with such a (weapons) system,” he said.
Meanwhile Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov charged Merz with his “tougher position” would “inevitably lead only to a further escalation of the situation around Ukraine”.
Deputy Security Council chief Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president, called Merz a “Nazi” for his suggestion to hit the Crimean bridge.
“Chancellor candidate Fritz Merz is haunted by the memory of his father, who served in Hitler’s Wehrmacht. Now Merz has suggested a strike on the Crimean Bridge. Think twice, Nazi!” Medvedev posted on X.
“Attempts have been made to intimidate staff in several prisons, ranging from burning vehicles to firing automatic weapons,” the French justice minister, Gerald Darmanin, said in a post on X.
“I am going to Toulon to support the officers concerned. The French Republic is facing up to the problem of drug trafficking and is taking measures that will massively disrupt the criminal networks,” he added.
French justice minister to travel to Toulon after prisons attacked with automatic weapons
French justice minister Gérald Darmanin will travel to Toulon in southern France later today, after a number of French prisons were targeted with fires and use of weapons last night, French media reported.
A source close to the minister told AFP, quoted by Le Figaro and Le Monde, that the attacks appeared to be coordinated and in response to the government’s strategy on drug trafficking.
Le Figaro said that prisons in Marseille, Valence, Nîmes and Luynes, Villepinte and Nanterre were also among those affected.
Serbian students on final stretch of ‘Tour de Strasbourg’ to highlight corruption allegations
Ashifa Kassam
For more than four months, the students’ nationwide campaign against corruption has dominated headlines across much of Serbia’s media, tracking the near-daily protests that have at times attracted hundreds of thousands and rattled the country’s top echelons of power.
But since early April, around 80 of the protesters have been on a mission to draw the EU’s attention to their movement, with a 1,300km cycling journey that is set to arrive today in Strasbourg, the French city where the European parliament meets.
“Europe has been asleep for too long,” Vladimir Beljanski of the Vojvodina Bar Association told local news site N1 in explaining why he and others had decided to embark on the two-week journey. “It is important to draw Europe’s attention. Serbia is part of Europe. We are not a wild Balkan tribe where resources can be extracted while ignoring the rule of law, quite the opposite.”
The student protests began in November in response to the collapse of a train station roof in the northern city of Novi Sad. The tragedy, which killed 16 people, soon became a flashpoint amid Serbia’s increasingly authoritarian rule, attracting protesters from across the country who demanded greater government transparency.
The protests have since become the biggest challenge yet to the country’s president, Aleksandar Vučić, and his decade-long grip on power. Vučić has responded by accusing the students of working against the state and protesters have said they’ve been attacked on numerous occasions.
Months on, the EU’s response to the protest has been lukewarm, with officials refraining from directly criticising Vučić. But the cyclists said they hoped their arrival in Strasbourg today, along with a rally planned in front of the EU parliament and European Court of Human Rights, would help to raise awareness of the resistance they’ve faced.
“Instead of getting answers – we got batons. Instead of dialogue – we got censorship,” they said on the website launched to track their journey. “We grew up believing freedom and justice were basic human rights. Now we see them as privileges being stripped away.”
Jakub Krupa
Elsewhere, I will be following a group of Serbian students who are on the final stretch of their “Tour de Strasbourg” as part of the broader students’ protest movement in Serbia against the increasingly authoritarian rule of the country’s president Aleksandar Vučić.
They have been getting lots of love and support along the way, and today they are about to go on the very final stage of their trip taking them 81 km from Karlsruhe in Germany to Strasbourg, France, where they hope to get by 6pm local time.
Let me bring European community affairs correspondent Ashifa Kassam with more on their initiative.
Key questions for Ukraine’s European allies – analysis
David Shimer, the former director for eastern Europe and Ukraine on Joe Biden’s national security council, writes for the Guardian today, asking “two key questions for Ukraine’s European allies” as he worries about the US military aid ceasing soon.
Servicemen of the 49th Separate Assault Battalion Carpathian Sich of the Armed Forces of Ukraine repair a T-80 tank captured earlier from Russian troops, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region. Photograph: Anatolii Stepanov/Reuters
The war between Russia and Ukraine is approaching a historic turning point: unless the Trump administration adjusts course, US military aid for Ukraine is about to cease.
Since taking office, Trump has not approved a single military aid package for Ukraine. Even if Trump were to reverse course and utilize this remaining drawdown authority, the amount available is insufficient to sustain US support for Ukraine over time. To do that, Congress would need to approve additional Ukraine funding, which will not happen while the Republican party controls both chambers and the White House. As a result, the era of US military aid to Ukraine is approaching its end.
Vladimir Putin is stalling the Trump administration’s ineffective pursuit of a ceasefire as he waits for Biden-era military aid deliveries to run dry.
European leaders have stepped up in recent months to try to help Ukraine survive in the absence of US leadership. European discussions about a postwar reassurance force are important, but the actual war is still ongoing, and further planning is needed to deal with the impending loss of US material support.
The key questions for Ukraine’s European backers are twofold: how can Ukraine persist with a combination of its own domestic production of weapons, European security assistance, and US intelligence sharing?; and what is the most viable pathway to finance this support?
‘Not good for Europe to be security vassal of the US,’ JD Vance says
Separately, US vice-president JD Vance has given a wide-ranging interview on his approach to European policy, telling UnHerd that “it’s not good for Europe to be the permanent security vassal of the United States.”
He insisted that he “loves Europe,” despite his critical comments in Munich or during his recent trip to Greenland.
In most attention-grabbing comments, he once again criticised Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy for “absurd” comments that the Trump administration is “somehow on the side of the Russians,” which he said was “certainly not productive.”
He also repeated some of his criticism of European leaders on migration and integration, saying that “European populations keep on crying out for more sensible economic and migration policies, and the leaders of Europe keep on going through these elections, and keep on offering the European peoples the opposite of what they seem to have voted for.”
He also warned that Europe should step up and work on its defences, as “most European nations don’t have militaries that can provide for their reasonable defence,” noting exceptions in the UK, France, and Poland.
He also called for stronger Europe, saying: “I don’t want the Europeans to just do whatever the Americans tell them to do. I don’t think it’s in their interest, and I don’t think it’s in our interests, either.”
The entire thing is worth reading to better understand the vice-president’s thoughts – it’s here.
Morning opening: What does Vladimir Putin want?
Jakub Krupa
On Monday, several European leaders lined up to criticise Vladimir Putin for Russia’s continuing attacks on Ukraine, and sabotaging the peace efforts of the Trump administration in the US.
But the White House view remains distinctively different.
Speaking alongside El Salvador president Nayib Bukele, Trump once again took aim at Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy instead, saying:
“The mistake was letting the war happen. If Biden were competent. And if Zelenskyy were competent — and I don’t know that he is, we had a rough session with this guy over here.”
“You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles.”
On Putin, his tone was distinctively different as he argued:
“And you take a look at Putin — I’m not saying anybody’s an angel, but I will tell you, I went four years, and it wasn’t even a question. He would never — and I told him don’t do it. You’re not going to do it.”
Ultimately, he concluded that Biden, Zelenskyy and Putin are all at blame for the war:
“And Biden could have stopped it, and Zelenskyy could have stopped it, and Putin should have never started it. Everybody’s to blame.”
But perhaps even more revealing were comments by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, who was in Moscow last week.
Speaking on Fox News, Witkoff said he was confident after his latest five-hour “compelling” meeting with the Russians that a deal with Putin was “emerging”.
“Towards the end, we actually came up with – I’m going to say finally, but I don’t mean it in the way that we were waiting; I mean it in the way that it took a while for us to get to this place – what Putin’s request is to get to, have a permanent peace,” he said.
But in comments that are likely to spook European partners by signalling Putin’s broader security demands, he said the peace deal is “about the so-called five territories, but there’s so much more to it: there’s security protocols, there’s no Nato, Nato Article Five, I mean, it’s just a lot of detail attached to it.”
“It’s a complicated situation … rooted in … some real problematic things happening between the two countries and I think we might be on the verge of something that would be very, very important for the world at large,” he added.
Witkoff also added that he believed “there is a possibility to reshape the Russian-United States relationship through some very compelling commercial opportunities that I think give real stability to the region too.”
So, what, back to business as usual? That’s certainly what Putin wants.
It all increasingly makes it look, as our Russia expert Luke Harding put it, that “the truth is that America either wants Russia to win, or doesn’t care if Ukraine loses.”
On that depressing note…
It’s Tuesday, 15 April 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
