Why Did Gold Prices Surge To a Record This Week?

Gold futures climbed above $3,000 an ounce for the first time as anxiety about escalating trade wars and U.S. economic growth pushed investors into traditional safe havens. 

Gold rose as high as $3,016/oz in early trading Friday, briefly putting the metal up nearly 4% since the start of the week. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 before Friday was on track to have its worst week in two years. Gold pared its gains and stocks rebounded during Friday’s session.

Gold has advanced this week for the same reason that stocks have slumped. While recent inflation and employment data suggest the economy remains on solid footing, investors are increasingly nervous that President Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies will increase costs for businesses and consumers and slow economic growth. 

Fear that the U.S. is headed toward a period of stagflation—the unlikely pairing of elevated inflation and sluggish growth—has sent investors into safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasurys. Gold is viewed on Wall Street as a reliable store of value, and thus a hedge against inflation and declining asset prices. Heightened uncertainty can contribute to rising gold prices, as it did in the lead-up to November’s presidential election

Also at play are Treasury yields, which have declined markedly in the last two months, also a byproduct of investors’ flight to safety. Treasury yields are inversely related to Treasury prices, meaning yields fall as demand for U.S. debt—the market’s closest thing to a risk-free asset—increases. Gold has no yield; investors only profit on gold if its price increases. For that reason, the appeal of Treasurys relative to gold decreases as yields fall, which can help to fuel gold’s rise.