Who Will Be the Next Pope? Millions of Dollars Have Been Bet on the Question

The Vatican is picking a new pope. You can bet on who will get the job. 

You (probably) weren’t invited to don a red robe, head to the Sistine Chapel and weigh in on the relative merits of some of today’s most prominent spiritual leaders. But your instinct still counts at Polymarket and Kalshi, online prediction markets where people can wager on all kinds of things—including the identity of the next pope.

Pope Francis died last month, and dozens of cardinals met Wednesday to begin voting on a new leader for the Vatican. It may take multiple rounds of voting over a number of days for cardinals to reach the two-thirds majority needed to name a new leader of the Catholic Church.

The top contenders are said to include Cardinal Pietro Parolin, an Italian who was second-in-command under Francis, and Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines, according to the New York Times.

Nearly $29 million has collectively been wagered on the matter at Polymarket and Kalshi as of early Wednesday afternoon. On Polymarket, if you accurately bet $1 that Parolin will win, you would get a $3.13 payout; a successful $1 wager on Tagle would bring in $5.21, as of early Wednesday afternoon.

Payouts appear similar on Kalshi. A winning $1 bet on Parolin would result in a $3.72 payout; a $1 wager on Tagle would lead to a $5 reward.