What Would It Take For The Fed To Cut Interest Rates?

The Federal Reserve is in “wait and see” mode for now, but several Fed officials indicated this week that the central bank could cut rates as early as June if the economic data worsens.

In an interview on CNBC Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said the Fed could cut interest rates as soon as June if the economy shows signs of deteriorating under President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs.

“If we have convincing data by June, then I think you’ll see the committee move if we know which way to move at that point,” Hammack said.

Another official, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, told Bloomberg Television he could see the central bank cutting interest rates if the labor market fell apart, but he didn’t expect that to happen until at least July.

“It wouldn’t surprise me that you might start seeing more layoffs, a tick up in the unemployment rate going forward if the big tariffs in particular come back on,” Waller said Thursday. “I would expect more rate cuts, and sooner, once I started seeing some serious deterioration in the labor market.”

The Fed officials’ comments highlighted the central bank’s current dilemma as it waits to see if there is significant economic fallout from Trump’s trade war.

The Fed’s job is to keep inflation low and unemployment high. Its primary tool, the federal funds rate, influences borrowing costs for all kinds of loans. The Fed can boost the economy by lowering the rate or push down inflation by raising it. Economists say that Trump’s tariffs risk increasing inflation while hurting employment, leaving Fed officials to choose which problem to tackle first.

Lately, the Fed has been in a holding pattern, keeping the fed funds rate at above-average levels to snuff out the last embers of post-pandemic high inflation. As of March, the labor market was resilient, with low unemployment, and inflation was falling toward the Fed’s goal of a 2% annual rate, but officials are bracing for a turnaround on both fronts.

Investors currently expect the Fed to stand by at the next meeting of its policy committee in May, and cut rates in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.