By Alicia Wallace, CNN
(CNN) — The March jobs report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that even though hiring in the US is slowing, the overall labor market remains fairly healthy.
But it remains to be seen how long that continues.
Recent economic data has indicated that uncertainty is swelling, consumers have reined in some spending, and layoff activity is on the rise amid the Trump administration’s monumental policy moves that include large-scale federal layoffs, funding cutbacks, mass deportations, and steep and sprawling tariffs.
While the ripple effects from tariffs and immigration activities could take longer to show up in the data, the federal workforce reductions have already started appearing. In February, the sector posted a loss of 10,000 jobs.
Nearly 300,000 federal worker layoffs have been announced as a result of Department of Government Efficiency actions since February, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which tracks job cut intentions.
However, not all of those workers were laid off immediately and so are expected to appear in unemployment numbers as a relatively slow drip.
For years now, the labor market has been the solid foundation underpinning consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of all economic activity.
But if the pace of job gains continues to cool (an expected normalization post-pandemic), that could significantly impact spending habits. The all-important “churn” in the labor market has slowed in recent months — first due in part to pre-election uncertainty, and recently amid the unpredictable policy outcomes.
Economists are forecasting that the US added 130,000 jobs last month, a drop-back from February’s preliminary estimate of 151,000 jobs, according to FactSet. The unemployment rate is expected to move higher to 4.2% from 4.1%.
This story is developing and will be updated.
The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2025 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
