Key Takeaways
- Costco Wholesale is slated to post fiscal third-quarter earnings after the market closes Thursday.
- Analysts mostly rate Costco stock as a “buy”—but, on average, they don’t expect much movement from the $1,000-plus share price.
- Sales and profits are expected to rise for the warehouse retailer as Costco appears well-positioned to handle tariff-fueled uncertainty, UBS analysts said.
Costco Wholesale (COST) is set to report its results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 after the closing bell on Thursday, with analysts generally bearing bullish ratings on the stock but not expecting substantial share-price gains.
Ten analysts tracked by Visible Alpha rate the stock as a “buy,” while the other six call the warehouse retail giant a “hold.” The average price target is at $1,058.40, suggesting upside of about 4% from the stock’s Tuesday closing price, and just short of the stock’s record close slightly under $1,077 on Feb. 13.
Costco is expected to report an 8% increase in total revenue from the same time a year ago to $63.19 billion, while earnings per share are expected to rise 13% to $4.27. The retailer is expected to report 79.6 million paying members, up from 78.4 million last quarter.
Analysts Say Membership Fee Hike, Scale Should Help Costco Handle Tariffs
UBS analysts said Thursday that they see Costco as well-positioned to “navigate the uncertain macro backdrop better than the vast majority of retail,” as it can quickly stop selling a product it may no longer be able to sell at an appealing price, and replace it with another.
Executives have said Costco should be see the benefits of its membership fee increase, which took effect at the turn of its fiscal year in September, start to positively impact its profit in the second half of its fiscal 2025, and into fiscal 2026. The analysts said that high-margin membership revenue should give Costco more room to absorb the impact of tariffs without raising prices.
“There’s probably not a lot that can come from this print that will change the market’s perception that [Costco] is a good place to be,” UBS analysts wrote. “Though, its superior position, levers, and capabilities to manage the upcoming headwinds will probably be more evident as the impact of tariffs become translucent in the coming months.”
Costco shares, which have had an up-and-down year, have added about 11% in 2025 so far.
UPDATE—May 27, 2025: This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent analyst estimates and share price values.
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