Wanna Bet on a Recession This Year? You Can Do Exactly That

Think there will—or won’t—be a recession this year? Wanna bet? 

Economists and other forecasters have reworked their outlooks since President Donald Trump late Wednesday announced a fresh set of global tariffs that sent markets racing downward. Several have scaled back their forecasts for U.S. gross domestic product, while lifting their predictions regarding the likelihood of a recession—technically defined as multiple quarters of declining GDP growth. 

Investors, naturally, have their own ideas. And so do bettors on prediction markets, which have lately grown in popularity including, late last year, as a means of wagering on the outcome of the election Trump eventually won. (In addition to economic events, other playable markets you can find today include ones about the New York Democratic mayoral race, the Final Four, and Elon Musk.)

On Polymarket, the odds of a recession have risen from below 30% around the time of Trump’s inauguration to 56% as of earlier today. That means that, if you bet $1 on “yes,” and you’re right, you’d win $1.75, while if you bet $1 on “no,” you’d win $2.27.

The odds are a bit different on Kalshi, another prediction market. Over there, the odds of a recession were recently at 60%—meaning a correct $1 bet on “yes” will get you $2, while one on “no” will get you $3.

As for other markets, you can read Investopedia’s live coverage of today’s trading in stocks and other assets here.