If anyone is as happy as Anthony Albanese right now, it’s Jacinta Allan.
As the federal election results rolled in on Saturday night, one of the biggest surprises came in Victoria – where Labor defied months of grim predictions to strengthen its grip on the state.
Despite relentless commentary about Allan’s unpopularity and the supposed drag she posed on the Labor vote – not just from the Liberals but by her own federal colleagues – the state swung even harder to the party than it did in 2022.
According to Poll Bludger, Labor’s two-party-preferred vote in the state sits at 54.8 to 45.2.
Labor not only held Aston – a seat in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs it won at a 2023 byelection but had written off this campaign, pulling out resources weeks ago – but also won nearby Deakin and Menzies off the Liberals.
Neither were on Labor’s target list. In Menzies, there wasn’t even a field organiser on the ground.
Other suburban seats targeted by the Liberals such as Chisholm, Dunkley and McEwen also swung further to Labor, while talk about strongholds such as Bruce, Hawke and Gorton being under threat proved to be rubbish.
It’s a devastating result for the Coalition in a state they desperately needed to turn around. At best, the Liberal party could emerge with just seven out of 38 across Victoria – as many seats as their Nationals partners.
The Liberals didn’t see this coming – and neither did Labor.
“We were expecting the Luftwaffe to come in and completely decimate us – instead, we got Dutton on a lame pony. Their campaign was an absolute joke,” one senior Victorian Labor source said.
State Labor figures had braced for a swing away from the party – expecting a drop of between 1.5% to 2.5% while members of state caucus were questioning whether Allan’s leadership could survive a loss of more than three federal seats. A challenge was seen as inevitable if key seats fell.
Such was the fear internally that Albanese appeared with Allan just once during the campaign. In the final fortnight, she held only two metropolitan press conferences, well away from the campaign trail – one at a Lego Star Wars exhibition, where she posed with Darth Vader, raising a few eyebrows.
But Allan has emerged unscathed.
A Victorian Labor MP from her socialist left faction said the result should “put any leadership speculation to bed”.
“The hysteria around Jacinta’s leadership has been ridiculous,” another Labor MP said. “It was unfair to tie her to the result of a federal poll, but if that’s the barometer for success, then this result should shut her detractors up.”
Others, however, expressed caution, noting Victorians were able to differentiate between the state and federal government.
One MP said federal Labor’s funding commitments for suburban roads and Melbourne airport would have resonated with voters. Another said the election was won on federal issues – tax cuts, Medicare and the response to a second Trump presidency.
But Allan wasn’t having it. On Sunday, she went as far as crediting the result to “Victorian initiatives” such as investment in women’s health and free Tafe that have now been adopted federally.
“It demonstrates very clearly that federal and state Labor share the same values,” she told reporters.
To Allan and many of her MPs, the result was also a vindication of the Suburban Rail Loop – the state government’s flagship 90km underground line linking Cheltenham to Werribee.
“Four elections now – it has been backed time and time again by the Victorian community,” Allan said, pointing to the results in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs.
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Others within Labor credited the result to strong support from Chinese Australian voters in the eastern suburbs – many of whom saw Peter Dutton as hostile to China.
“It had nothing to do with the SRL but it’s very politically advantageous for the premier to say that,” one federal Labor source said.
Allan’s critics, meanwhile, pointed to Bendigo – the premier’s home town, where Labor MP Lisa Chesters suffered a swing of about 10% – as evidence not all is well.
But those close to the premier argue if she can navigate a difficult state budget later this month, she will get to preside over the long-awaited openings of two major infrastructure projects – the Metro Tunnel and the West Gate Tunnel – giving her a real chance to build lasting momentum.
Liberal party blame game begins
The real crisis now lies with the Liberal party.
Speaking to Victorian Liberal MPs, the same issues that plagued previous elections keep resurfacing: poor candidate selection, lack of policy depth, little engagement with women and an obsession with culture wars and fringe issues.
“Victoria is not a conservative state,” one Liberal MP said. “When are they going to get that into their heads?”
Another said the Liberals had failed to attract young voters: “My daughter said she woke up on Sunday to the promise of 20% less Hecs debt. That tells you everything.”
Liberal strategist turned pollster Tony Barry laid the blame squarely at the feet of the Victorian division, calling it a “broken institution” that sabotaged its own campaign.
The party’s internal turmoil stretches back to 2023, when then leader John Pesutto led the push to expel Moira Deeming from the party room – a move that triggered a defamation suit Deeming later won, costing him the leadership.
The party’s new leader, Brad Battin, may have attempted to distance himself from Peter Dutton during the campaign but he reignited party’s internal war by promoting Deeming as his “representative to the western suburbs” just days before pre-polling began.
Unlike their federal counterparts, a handful of moderates remain in the Victorian Liberal party room. But they fear if Pesutto is bankrupted due to the legal costs of the defamation case, the party could be forced into a byelection in Hawthorn – a seat he only narrowly won back in 2022 after campaigning on his plans to restore small-l liberal values.
Battin, just months into the job, has shown little sign of unifying a fractured base, reconnecting with inner-city voters or winning back women. He also failed to front up to media on Sunday to explain the federal result – a silence that left his MPs frustrated.
His team insists new policy is coming this week – well ahead of the November 2026 state election. But that can’t be the only lesson the state Liberals take from the federal poll.
