Topline
The World Meteorological Organization on Wednesday released a report that projects global temperatures will remain near record levels over the next five years, with a strong chance the 2024 annual temperature record will be broken during this period, likely worsening the impact of climate change and increasing the chances of extreme weather events.
The WMO warned that near record global temperatures are likely to continue for the next five years.
Key Facts
The report predicts that there is an 86% chance that average global temperatures will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years.
There is also a 70% chance that the 5-year average temperature for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial numbers—a key benchmark laid out in the Paris Climate Agreement.
The U.K. Meteorological Office, which produced the report for the WMO, also warned that for the first time, there was a very slight possibility (1%) of average temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels by 2 degrees in one of the next five years.
The report also projected that the Arctic region will continue to warm at a rate that is 3.5 times higher than the rest of the world, which could lead to a rapid melting of ice caps and a rise in sea levels.
Why Is The 1.5 Degrees Celsius Threshold So Significant?
The 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit increase over the pre-industrial average is a critical threshold under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. The agreement’s signatories have set this as the preferred limit for the increase in global temperatures they want to work towards, with a 2 degrees Celsius being set as the maximum upper limit. If the latest WMO report projections are correct, it does not necessarily represent a breach of the Paris Agreement limit, as that takes into account the average levels over two decades. Nonetheless, the threshold being breached multiple times this decade is likely to trigger alarm among climate scientists.
Crucial Quote
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said.
Tangent
Just hours after he took office in January, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement—in a redux of a move he enacted in his first term. Since then the Trump administration has rolled back several environmental protections and targeted multiple climate initiatives.
Big Number
Between 1.2 and 1.9 degrees Celsius. That is how much higher the average global temperatures is projected be for each of the next five years (2025-2029) compared to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial era.
Further Reading
‘Virtually Certain’ 2024 Will Be The Hottest Year On Record, EU Climate Body Says (Forbes)
