A new law to fast-track the removal of asylum seekers who arrive from countries deemed to be safe is being drawn up by ministers, prompting concerns that thousands of claimants may not be given a fair hearing.
Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, said she would legislate to speed up the processing, appeals and deportation of people “who should not be sitting in the asylum system for a long time”.
The disclosure comes as a Home Office analysis claimed that the record numbers of people arriving in the UK via small boats could be attributed to favourable weather and greater numbers being crammed into vessels.
Amid pressure on the government to cut the number of people waiting for asylum decisions, Cooper told the home affairs select committee: “One of the things I have always been keen to do is to have a system of fast-track decisions and appeals. If people arrive from predominantly ‘safe’ countries, they should not be sitting in the asylum system for a long time at all.
“That would be a fast-track system alongside the main asylum system … That would require legislation in order to be able to do that, and new system design.”
Responding to Cooper’s words, Enver Solomon, the chief executive of the Refugee Council, said many asylum seekers might not be given a fair hearing under such a system.
He said: “Some countries may be deemed to be safe by the government but that does not mean that a person has not been trafficked, or persecuted for their sexual orientation or political beliefs. That is why it is so important to judge each case on its merits and give everyone a fair hearing.”
Figures show there were twice as many “red days” – when there are calmer conditions in the Channel, meaning crossings are more likely – in the first four months of this year as there were in the same period in 2024.
In the year ending April 2025, 47% of boats crossing the Channel had 60 or more people onboard, compared with 2% in the year to April 2022.
The Migration Observatory at Oxford University challenged the Home Office analysis, saying there was no evidence that weather was a major factor in long-term increases in boat arrivals.
The analysis has been released as Keir Starmer attempts to fight off a growing challenge from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Labour party officials are convinced that rising irregular immigration numbers will be a key issue in future elections.
On Saturday, more than 1,100 migrants and refugees arrived in the UK, bringing the annual total to 14,812, up 42% on this time last year.
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According to the figures released on Tuesday, there were 60 red days in the first four months of 2025, compared with 27 over the same period in 2024 and 23 in the first part of 2023.
There were 93.5% more red days during the first 10 months of Starmer’s government than in the same period a year earlier. In that time, there was a 34.5% increase in the number of arrivals, from 25,571 between July 2023 to April 2024, to 34,401 in the 10 months to April 2025.
The number of people travelling in each dinghy has increased, the figures show. In April 2023, there was only, one boat carrying more than 80 people. In April this year, there were 33 boats carrying 80 or more people.
Assessments of the likelihood of Channel crossings are prepared for the Home Office by the Met Office. The assessments are colour-coded red, amber or green according to likelihood of activity based on environmental and other factors, including wave height, surf conditions on beaches, wind speed and direction, the chance of rain, and recent trends in conditions.
Peter Walsh, a senior researcher at the Migration Observatory, said: “There’s no evidence to suggest that the weather is a major factor explaining long-term increases in small boat arrivals such as the one we’ve seen over the past eight months.
“It seems unlikely that the weather is much more than a short-term constraint on small boat crossings. Other factors, such as the number of people wanting to reach the UK and the number and professionalisation of smuggling gangs, are likely to be more important.”
A Home Office spokesperson said: “This government is restoring grip to the broken asylum system it inherited that saw a whole criminal smuggling enterprise allowed to develop, where gangs have been able to exploit periods of good weather to increase the rate of crossings for too long.”
