Trump’s Tariffs Could Be At Their Peak—But There Are Caveats

Tariffs could moderate, if new comments by President Donald Trump and the White House are any indication.

Trump and his trade advisors are negotiating trade deals with dozens of countries. Those deals will likely end with lower tariffs than are currently on the table; under the paused “reciprocal” tariffs, import duties of up to 50% were charged on nearly 60 countries. (Tariffs on Chinese goods, which are not eligible for the pause, are even higher when taken in conjunction with the president’s other actions, totaling 145% imposed this year.)

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a briefing Tuesday that 18 trade proposals from other countries were “on paper” and 34 countries were meeting with White House representatives this week. Trump told reporters later in the day that tariffs on China “will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.”

The Trump administration says resetting trade policy will bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S. and fund parts of the federal government budget. Economists warn, however, that U.S. consumers will ultimately pay for tariffs in the form of higher inflation and slower economic growth.

All told, it’s possible that the highest tariffs are behind the U.S. There are, however, some caveats.

Lots of Countries to Deal With And Not a Lot of Time

The White House has 11 weeks to negotiate trade agreements with at least 57 countries to avoid reinstating the highest tariffs imposed thus far. Trump’s 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariffs gives governments until July 9 to reach a deal.

That could be a challenge. Trade deals have, on average, taken 18 months to negotiate and 45 days to implement. Trump’s trade advisors maintain that making up to 90 deals in 90 days is possible.

Trump Has Changed His Mind Before

The on-again, off-again nature of Trump’s trade policies thus far has economists and analysts unsure whether this latest pullback on the most extreme tariffs will last.

For example, Trump seemingly walked back his reciprocal tariff threat in the days before his ‘Liberation Day‘ announcement. The level of tariffs he then announced was higher than many investors, economists, analysts, and even Federal Reserve officials expected.

Even Lesser Tariffs Can Do Economic Damage

Even lower tariffs could slow economic growth and spur inflation, economists said.

During the pause, 10% universal tariffs are imposed on goods from most countries. That’s in addition to a 145% tariff on China, 25% tariff on non-USMCA goods from Canada and Mexico and industry-specific tariffs that went into effect earlier in the year.

On average, the tariff rate on goods coming into the country is about 20%, economists say. That’s nearly 10 times more than the average tariff at the end of last year.

So even if lower rates are negotiated, widespread tariffs could still take a significant financial toll on U.S. consumers and the economy.