Trump’s Policies Could Strengthen—Or Slow—the Housing Market. Here’s How.

President-elect Donald Trump has the opportunity to significantly impact the U.S. housing market, especially with a Republican sweep of both the House and the Senate. But what shape might those effects take?

“The size and direction of a ‘Trump bump’ will depend on what campaign proposals ultimately become policy and when,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com. “The new administration’s policies have the potential to enhance or hamper the housing recovery, and the details will matter.”

Some policies espoused by Trump could make it easier for new housing supply to hit the market. Meanwhile, while the president does not set mortgage rates, some of Trump’s proposed policy changes could influence their trajectory.

Trump Policies Could Aid Housing Supply

The National Association of Realtors in 2023 estimated that there was a nationwide housing shortage of between 4 million and 6 million homes. Of the available homes, only 23% were affordable to households earning a median income of $75,000 or lower.

Trump in his presidential agenda proposed opening up “limited portions of federal land to allow for new home construction.” As president, Trump could have the leverage to make housing construction easier, increasing inventory, according to Hale.

Trump also said during his campaign that he would address regulations that have made construction harder for home builders. Regulations have caused more than a $93,000 increase in the price of a new home, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Some Policies Could Move Mortgage Rates, Hamper Supply

Trump has proposed 10% to 60% tariffs on imports, which some economists say would lead to higher inflation. Trump’s proposals to extend his 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, cut overtime income from taxes, and end the taxation of social security benefits, among others, would add $7.75 trillion to the projected debt through 2035, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

With some investors anticipating higher inflation or a larger federal deficit, markets have already pushed up the 10-year Treasury yield, Mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, and if rates on the yield continue to rise, this would likely keep mortgage rates high.

Separately, Trump during his campaign promised “mass deportations” for undocumented immigrants he said have “driven up the cost of housing” by spurring demand. But mass deportations in the short run could also hurt inventory: A third of residential housing construction employees are foreign-born workers, said Realtor.com.