Key Takeaways
- Apple shifting production to the U.S. is “a fairy tale” despite President Trump threatening a tariff on iPhones made outside the U.S., Wedbush said.
- Wedbush estimates such a move would result in an iPhones with a price tag of $3,500, while the iPhone 16 currently costs $799.
- Citi analysts said Apple would likely pass about a third of higher incremental costs onto customers and suppliers.
President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a tariff of 25% or more on Apple (AAPL) iPhones made internationally. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush says there’s “no chance” the company shifts iPhone manufacturing to the U.S.
Trump on Friday warned Apple that the White House would impose a tariff of at least 25% on iPhones made outside the U.S.—including in India, where the company has moved more of its production amid higher tariffs on China—and sold here. Apple did not immediately respond to Investopedia’s request for comment.
The concept “of Apple producing iPhones in the US is a fairy tale that is not feasible,” Ives wrote Friday. Wedbush estimates that American-made iPhones would cost $3,500, while the iPhone 16 currently starts at $799 and the iPhone 16 Pro sells for $999.
“We see no chance that iPhone production starts to happen in the U.S. in the near-term given the upside down cost model and Herculean-like supply chain logistics needed,” Ives said.
“I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” the president said in a post on his Truth Social platform. “If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S.”
JP Morgan analysts on Friday said such a tariff would likely need to cover smartphones broadly, rather than specifically target Apple. They also suggested that a 5% global increase in iPhone prices might help the company mitigate the effects of 25% tariffs on devices sold in the U.S.
Citi analysts estimate that a 25% tariff on iPhones, which make up about two-thirds of Apple products sold in the U.S., would lower the company’s earnings per share by more than 4% in fiscal 2026 and 2027. The bank estimates that Apple would pass one-third of higher incremental costs onto its customers and suppliers.
Shares of Apple slid nearly 3% in recent trading Friday. The stock is down 21% in 2025 so far.
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