Trump tariffs creating ‘high uncertainty’, Bank of Japan warns; list of 95 Santander branches to close – business live

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

These are difficult times for central bankers, as the threat of a global trade war and fears of a US recession grip economies and the markets.

And this morning, the Bank of Japan has put its finger on the problem – policymakers simply can’t predict what will happen next.

Speaking to reporters, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda explained:

“In the past month or so, there have been rapid changes in the scope and speed of U.S. tariffs. However, there are aspects we may not know even beyond April, so uncertainty remains high.

We will scrutinise how the U.S. trade policy unfolds, how it affects the U.S. and other global economies, and how that all impacts Japan’s economic and price outlook.”

Ueda also cautioned that “overseas uncertainty has heightened sharply lately”, and that it is hard to quantify the risks at this stage.

Ueda was speaking after the BoJ decided to leave Japan’s interest rates on hold at 0.5%, even though Japan’s annual wholesale inflation rate hit 4.0% in February.

In the weeks leading up to today’s meeting, president Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the US and pledged to bring in ‘reciprocal and sectoral’ tariffs on 2 April, to balance out any imbalances.

But he has also pulled back from his trade war with Canada and Mexico by temporarily delaying tariffs on many goods from the two countries, adding to the trade policy uncertainty.

As the BoJ put it:

“Concerning risks to the outlook, there remain high uncertainties surrounding Japan’s economy and prices including the evolving situation regarding trade and other policies in each jurisdiction.”

Earlier this week, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent indicated that countries will get an opportunity to avoid higher tariffs by reducing their own trade barriers.

But a White House official has indicated that Donald Trump’s intention is still to enact tariffs on 2 April.

The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, will give its view on the situation tonight when it sets monetary policy – it’s not expected to change interest rates though.

The agenda

• 10am GMT: Eurozone inflation report (final estimate) for February

• 11am GMT: US weekly mortgage application data

• 6pm GMT: US Federal Reserve interest rate decision

• 6.30pm GMT: US Federal Reserve press conference