Kyiv, Ukraine – When it comes to Ukraine, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agree on their deep dislike of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The US and Russian leaders both want their Ukrainian counterpart gone.
“We have a situation where we haven’t had elections in Ukraine, where we have martial law, where the leader in Ukraine, I hate to say it, but he’s down at four percent approval rating,” Trump claimed on February 19.
Five days later, Putin backed Trump’s claim.
“It actually doesn’t matter how many percent [Zelenskyy] has, four or whatever. What’s important is that his rating, according to our data, is exactly twice as low as his possible political rival,” Putin said, referring to Valerii Zaluzhnyii, Ukraine’s former top general, who Zelenskyy fired last year.
Trump and Putin were wrong about Zelenskyy’s ratings.
Zelenskyy’s diplomatic spats with Trump have increased his domestic popularity – from 52 percent in December to 57 percent in February, according to polls by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
However, 37 percent of Ukrainians do not trust Zelenskyy, the poll said.
Critics have accused Zelenskyy of muzzling free speech, failing to contain corruption in his own Servant of the People political party and, more importantly, in the military. They have also condemned him for firing Zaluzhnyi in February 2024.
Putin was right when he called Zaluzhnyi, who currently serves as Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, the only public figure who can beat Zelenskyy in the polls.
The beefy, taciturn general has a 62 percent approval rating – but has repeatedly said that he would not run for president during the war.
“While the war continues, we all need to work to save the country, not think about elections,” he told the RBC-Ukraine news agency last week.
However, Zaluzhnyi shrewdly follows the public relations tactic tried and tested by Zelenskyy ahead of his victory in the 2019 presidential election.
He keeps potential voters guessing about his political platform by rarely giving interviews and keeping his social media flow minimal.
Zaluzhnyi bristled at Trump only once – by accusing his administration of “destroying the world order” and “doubting the unity of the Western world” during a brief speech at London’s Chatham House on March 6, after the US president’s first demand to hold a snap vote.
The underlying message was clear – despite his certain victory, Zaluzhnyi is not challenging Zelenskyy now.
Meanwhile, Trump’s team has also reportedly approached Zelenskyy’s civilian rivals, even though their popularity is minimal.
In early March, Trump aides reportedly held talks with Yulia Tymoshenko, a veteran politician and two-time prime minister once known for her trademark halo braid.
Tymoshenko led in polls ahead of the 2019 vote until Zelenskyy, a comedian with no political experience, announced his bid.
But these days, only 10.6 percent of Ukrainians trust Tymoshenko, the head of the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) political party, according to the March 25 survey by the Rozumkov Center, a pollster in Kyiv.
Zelenskyy’s predecessor and archenemy is just a bit more popular.
According to the poll, 17 percent of Ukrainians trust Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s richest-man-turned-president who won the 2014 election after pledging to fight corruption and unite all Ukrainians of varying linguistic and ethnic backgrounds.
But while president, Poroshenko got mired in corruption scandals, and was trounced by Zelenskyy winning only 24 percent of the 2019 vote.
Poroshenko has confirmed that Trump’s aides approached him, but he rejected allegations that the meeting was about a snap vote.
“The election is only possible after a ceasefire and the signing of a peace deal with security guarantees for Ukraine,” he wrote on Facebook.
Ukraine’s constitution and election laws forbid any election during martial law, and holding them during the war is logistically impossible.
Ukraine would need to demobilise some 700,000 servicemen to make sure they can vote – and any of them can register as candidates and campaign.
It is hardly possible given that Russian forces keep pushing along the 1,200km (750-mile) front line, even though their territorial gains in March were minimal.
They occupied 133 square kilometres (51 square miles), mostly in Donbas – a devastating drop since November, when they took 730sq km (282sq miles), according to the Khortitsya, an analytical Telegram channel.
However, Putin apparently hopes for his forces’ breakthrough as he keeps coming up with new preconditions for a Trump-proposed 30-day ceasefire.
Russia’s almost daily shelling of Ukrainian cities is also a major security threat as crowds are inevitable during a vote.
Polling stations have traditionally been organised in public schools or administrative buildings, but the war has destroyed thousands of them.
Kyiv also cannot guarantee the security of international monitors who have observed each vote in post-Soviet Ukraine.
Voting after martial law lifted
If the ceasefire is inked, a presidential vote can be held 90 days after martial law is lifted.
However, to ensure the correct tally, Kyiv would need to conduct a census to reflect the real number of voters.
The population stood at 34.7 million in 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion began.
Since then, 6.9 million Ukrainians have fled abroad, 3.7 million were internally displaced, and 5 million remained in Russia-occupied areas.
Moreover, 1.3 million Ukrainians reside in Russia and its closest ally, Belarus, reports the United Nations.
According to Ukrainian officials, they face jail, torture and loss of property for any attempt to vote.
Paper ballots cast by refugees in Europe and elsewhere would overwhelm Ukrainian embassies and consulates.
More than 20 million Ukrainians use Diia, a mobile phone app that lets them use most government services and even sell their cars.
But when they used Diia to vote for a Ukrainian candidate for the Eurovision song contest in February, the app glitched.
The Economist, a British magazine, reported on Sunday that Kyiv is getting ready to hold a vote and Zelenskyy is hoping to win it. The publication cited anonymous government sources in its reporting.
A day later, the head of the ruling Servant of the People party dismissed the claim.
“All parliamentary parties and factions agreed that the election will have to take place six months after martial law is lifted,” David Arakhamia said in televised remarks.
