Authorities in Brisbane say 20,000 properties in the city are at risk of inundation by storm surge or flooding as Tropical Cyclone Alfred continues its ominous track towards the populated south-east Queensland coast.
Updated tracking maps on Wednesday morning show Alfred maintaining its intensity, speed and likely path to landfall.
It is still on track to reach the coastline about 1am on Friday somewhere between the Sunshine Coast and Brisbane as a category-two storm. The model also shows Alfred potentially crossing just south of Brisbane.
High tides due in the early hours of Friday are a particular concern for those in waterside communities.
Late on Tuesday Brisbane’s lord mayor, Adrian Schrinner, said he had been updated on new modelling that showed “20,000 properties across Brisbane could be impacted by storm surge or flooding”.
“These 20,000 properties could experience anything from minor inundation in their yards to significant flooding inside homes.”
Brisbane – a city of 2.5 million people – has severely flooded three times in 15 years.
Schrinner said the areas “most at risk” were beachside communities – including Nudgee Beach and Brighton – and low-lying suburbs near rivers and creeks including Windsor, Ashgrove, Morningside and Rocklea.
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The Bureau of Meteorology has warned that damaging and destructive winds – a more unusual threat for people in Brisbane – could begin on Wednesday. By Thursday afternoon those gusts could reach 155km/h.
Services are starting to close in Brisbane in the 48 hours before Alfred’s predicted crossing but it was still “business as usual” on Wednesday morning for supermarkets, state schools and other essential services.
There have been long queues for sandbags as residents prepare homes for the unusual phenomenon of a tropical cyclone in a large city, outside of the tropics.
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is expected to join Queensland authorities at disaster planning meetings from Wednesday.
The storm turned back towards the coast, as forecast, on Tuesday afternoon, having moved slowly south from the Coral Sea over about two weeks.
“The current forecast has the system intensifying to a high-end category two system prior to landfall on Thursday evening or Friday morning,” the bureau said on Wednesday.
“The possibility of the system reaching a low-end category three strength before making landfall cannot be ruled out, but remains a low risk.”
The system is moving about 11km/h as it tracks towards the coast.
