Traders Expect a Big Nvidia Stock Move After Earnings—Here’s How Much

Nvidia (NVDA) stock was rising on Wednesday ahead of the AI chip giant’s hotly anticipated fourth-quarter earnings report. 

Nvidia shares pared earlier gains but were still up more than 2% in late afternoon trading on Wednesday. The stock has shed more than 10% of its value since closing at an all-time high in early January but remains up more than 60% over the past year. 

Nvidia holds the record for both the largest one-day increase and decrease in market value, and options traders on Wednesday were positioning themselves for another sizable move in the stock. 

Nvidia options pricing on Wednesday afternoon suggested traders expect shares to move roughly $10, or about 8%, in either direction during the two days after Wednesday’s earnings. That would be the stock’s largest post-earnings move since May when shares gained more than 12% in the two days after Nvidia blew past earnings expectations. 

Nvidia stock has retreated after each of its two most recent reports. Shares lost more than 4% in the days after its August report and almost 3% after its November earnings. The company’s results exceeded expectations in both of those instances, but disappointed investors who may have been looking for even larger beats. 

Nvidia’s earnings come during a difficult stretch for stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gave up early gains on Wednesday, and were flirting with closing lower for a fifth consecutive day. The Magnificent Seven stocks, which have accounted for a large share of the stock market’s gains over the last two years, were trading in correction territory on Wednesday. 

Big tech stocks have been weighed down by substantial political and economic uncertainty of late. Chinese start-up DeepSeek prompted a reckoning with Silicon Valley’s AI strategy late last month, and tech stocks have struggled to shake off concerns about overspending. At the same time, the economic outlook has been muddled in the last month by signs of stubborn inflation and the Trump administration’s ever-changing tariff plans.