These Economists Think First-Time Homebuyers May Be Doing Better Than Previously Thought

The housing market is hard for homebuyers, but there’s a a group that’s faring better than expected—first-time homebuyers.

First-time buyers “are proving to be more resilient than some have depicted and in a better position than many might have feared,” wrote Donghoon Lee and Joseph Tracy in New York Federal Reserve’s Liberty Street Economics blog.

That’s in sharp contrast to most data reported on the cohort’s homebuying abilities until now. An Urban Institute study showed that 90% of renters told the Federal Reserve that they lacked the minimum 3.5% down payment to purchase an average-priced home.

What’s Driving First-Time Homebuyer Resilience?

Economists reviewed credit bureau data and found that despite rising costs, new owners are still entering the housing market.

The report found that first-time buyers have made up an increasingly larger share of mortgage purchases over the past decade. In 2023, more than half of all purchase mortgages were by first-time buyers, the first time that’s happened since 2010, despite the total number of mortgages falling off significantly under the high borrowing costs. 

First-time homebuyers also have had to compete with all-cash offers on houses during the height of the market crunch. But even there, new buyers have increased their share of total home purchases over the decade to reach 35% in 2023, its highest level in four years