These 3 Retailers Could Be Best Positioned To Weather ‘Macro Storm,’ Bernstein Says

E-commerce retailers that rely on a membership-based model could be more resilient to the effects of a potential recession, analysts at Bernstein said Tuesday.

The analysts named Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), and Costco (COST) as “best positioned to ride a macro storm” due in part to the revenue they generate from “membership lock-in.” Their focus on value and consumer staples could also help them take market share if macro conditions worsen, Bernstein said.

By contrast, retailers that rely more on discretionary spending such as Target (TGT) and Wayfair (W), as well as platforms like eBay (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), “could be more at risk,” the analysts said.

With recession fears mounting, many retail stocks have endured a particularly difficult past few weeks. Walmart and Target shares have fallen roughly 18% since mid-February, with Amazon shares dropping 10% and Costco down 13%. The S&P 500 has lost 6% over the same period.

This comes as consumers’ economic expectations have dropped to their lowest level in more than a decade, according to data from the Conference Board released Tuesday. 

E-commerce retail also tends to take share from (and recover more quickly than) brick and mortar during a recession, Bernstein said.