There’s an ‘Inconsistency in the Vibe’ of the American Consumer These Days

Americans haven’t stopped spending despite broad economic uncertainty. But a close look at recent data and trends has fed concerns about a slowdown. 

The unemployment rate is relatively low, and job creation is holding steady. Retail spending shot up 6.8% year-over-year in April, the National Retail Federation said, exclusive of car and gas purchases.

But Americans are increasingly uneasy, several measures suggest. Consumer sentiment fell in April for a fourth straight month, according to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Quick-service restaurants and companies selling everything from lunch to laundry detergent say their customers seem squeezed. And while credit and debit card spending ticked up 1% last month, according to Bank of America, there was a pullback in big splurges like trips and hotels.

Two releases set for Thursday will offer fresh data: Walmart (WMT) is slated to hand in its first-quarter numbers, and the government is scheduled to publish April retail data. Trade negotiations, notably with China, ahve contributed to the uncertainty: Widespread “reciprocal” tariffs are not slated to take effect for weeks, but the NRFthinks the threat of higher import taxes has spurred consumers to stock up on some items, juicing retail spending in April. 

“There’s a real inconsistency in the vibe,” said Max Levchin, CEO of buy now, pay later provider Affirm (AFRM), on CNBC Friday. “People are stressed out about the economy, yet they’re shopping. They’re buying, and they’re paying their bills.” 

Shoppers Look for Lower Sticker Prices

Oppenheimer analysts on Wednesday said Walmart has historically performed well in recessionary periods. Still, they acknowledged the current outlook can be hard to read.

“We have seen potentially mixed consumer data-points lately with still healthy consumer spending trends overall,” they wrote. “But at the same time, [there has been] more downbeat [consumer packaged goods company] commentary.”

Consumers have “a lot to process” and a reason to “pause,” Procter & Gamble (PG) CFO Andre Schulten said last month. The parent company of brands like Tide and Febreze recently downgraded its outlook for the full fiscal year. So did another consumer goods giant, Church & Dwight (CHD).

Americans are watching their tabs at Applebee’s and IHOP and cutting back at Wendy’s (WEN) and McDonald’s (MCD), executives recently said. At grocery and convenience stores, some shoppers are focusing more on sticker prices than the cost-per-serving, which has prompted Pepsi (PEP) and Mondelēz International (MDLZ) to offer smaller packages at lower price points, executives said last month.

“While two, three years ago consumers would easily pay above $4 for a pack of biscuits, we’re now seeing that we need to be below $4, and ideally below $3,” said Dirk Van de Put, CEO of Mondelēz, which counts Ritz Crackers and Oreo cookies as parts of its biscuit category.

Demand hasn’t waned for international airfare or luxury clothing, companies said. Households with six-figure incomes have been flocking to Walmart’s delivery service in recent months.

“We’re seeing higher engagement across income cohorts, with upper-income households continuing to account for the majority of share gains,” CFO John David Rainey said this winter.