The Fed’s Two-Day Policy Meeting Kicked Off Tuesday—What You Need To Know

The Federal Reserve’s two-day monetary policy meeting kicked off Tuesday, and officials are scheduled to release their predictions about the economy’s future.

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee are deliberating over monetary policy and are scheduled to release their decision about their key federal funds rate after the meeting at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, along with a set of economic projections. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

Here’s what to know about the two-day meeting.

The Fed Will Almost Certainly Keep Interest Rates Flat

Fed officials are widely expected to keep the key fed funds rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%, the same as it’s been since December.

The Fed has held the rate, which influences interest rates on all kinds of loans, at a higher-than-usual level to discourage borrowing and spending and drag inflation down to the Fed’s goal of a 2% annual rate.

Fed officials had cut the rate last year as price increases cooled down, and recent data has showed key inflation measures are now tantalizingly close to the Fed’s preferred rate. However, officials have said they are concerned Trump’s tariffs could push up consumer prices and stoke inflation later in the year.

The Fed’s Patient Approach Could Draw Trump’s Ire

That decision could provoke more criticism from President Donald Trump.

Trump has publicly browbeaten Fed officials and demanded they cut rates to boost the economy as the job market shows signs of a slowdown. The Fed is an independent agency, outside the direct control of the White House.

All Eyes Will Be On The ‘Dot Plot’

With the interest rate decision mostly a foregone conclusion, the wild card of the meeting will be the quarterly economic projections, which Fed officials last made in March. Those projections include the “dot plot” charting how many times each FOMC member expects to cut interest rates in the months ahead.

When Fed officials last made projections in March, they penciled in a median of two rate cuts, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Since then, the outlook has been shaken up by several Trump policy changes, including the sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs against many U.S. trading partners, which were subsequently paused until July.

Some experts expect the Fed to scale back its expectations to one rate cut in light of fresh concerns about tariffs. Others anticipate the Fed will still project two quarter-point cuts, out of concern the tariffs could slow down the economy and push up the unemployment rate.

The Fed’s “dual mandate” from Congress requires it to keep employment high at the same time as it keeps inflation under control.