We are just days from the start of May and the kickoff to 2025 summer movie season, so here are the box office power rankings from rebooted Superman to Jurassic Park sequel and much more, in this preview of the biggest upcoming summer releases.
Scarlett Johansson stars in “Jurassic World: Rebirth.”
The blockbuster battles will take place between a slate of tentpole franchise sequels and reboots, in a summer hoping to overperform dim expectations for the year’s box office. But a nice boost at the end of spring, courtesy of breakout original hit Sinners from writer-director Ryan Coogler and starring Michael B. Jordan in double-duty as twin brothers facing an unholy war in segregation-era Mississippi.
Sinners looks on course to potentially hit $50 million this weekend, as it continues to best expectations in a second weekend likely to top its debut last weekend. Such is the powerful positive word-of-mouth for this movie and repeat business, something theaters and studios desperately need.
And major congratulations and kudos to Coogler for negotiating a historic deal for original stories and for Black artists, including ownership of his movie reverting entirely back to Coogler in 25 years. Studios, pay attention and learn the right lessons, including investing far more in Black storytellers and their films, something I’ve written about time and time again, and which sadly remains true.
Audiences are stirring and seem eager for great stories to love, and willing to venture to theaters to find them again. In particular, this looks like a year in which everybody is hungry for some storytelling comfort food. Good timing, with just a few more days to the kickoff of what could be a healthier summer movie season than expected, as long as this slate of big-brand cinema delivers on the promises of its premises.
So let’s get to it, here is my power ranking of the top upcoming 2025 summer blockbusters…
Here are the 10 films I believe will top the summer box office, ranked in order of my expectations for their worldwide performances. There are three I feel will dominate the season and the charts; four more probable blockbusters that could overperform to break into the top-five, if any of those charted films underperforms; and three more that should round out the top 10, including one I feel will particularly overperform against expectations and its franchise past.
Jurassic Park Reopens For Business
Jurassic World: Rebirth – Dinosaurs will rule the summer once more when this billion dollar franchise returns to its roots, with an enormous star-powered boost from Scarlett Johansson in the lead role.
This is where the power rankings start, and I feel the built-in love and nostalgia will combine with the series’ well-timed themes of returning to the magic of its beginning should resonate well enough to make this the franchise to beat for the next four months of competition.
The last three entries have all topped the billion dollar threshold, starting with Jurassic World’s massive franchise-high $1.67 billion ten year as ago, continuing with 2018’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom gobbling up $1.3 billion, and 2022 bringing that trilogy of dino-tales to a close as Jurassic World: Dominion hit $1 billion.
I think Rebirth brings a fresh perspective and approach that will help revive whatever decline was happing, if “barely” topping a billion dollars can be seen as much to worry about. Conversely, can we ignore a drop of $670+ million across three films, even if they’re delivering $1 billion? That math would suggest the next film might only reach $700 million territory, if we treat such trends as predictive in and of themselves.
But of course, they aren’t, and the declines were due to a combination of major influences, including the 2015 release’s status as reviving the series and enjoying tremendous anticipation, while the most recent chapter was released during the years theatrical business was still recovering from the Covid shutdowns.
Film to film, then, the roughly $300 million drops are a bit less severe-seeming and more contextually understandable. It’s also true the trilogy became tumultuous in trying to top itself, so we can point to that as a final inherent factor at work.
Which is all why I believe Rebirth is primed to beat Dominion’s gross and make a run at Fallen Kingdom’s second-place position in the franchise box office history. Can the new chapter really deliver the magic and return to the basics that audiences might respond to best? If it does, I think the summer box office crown is this film’s for the taking.
Fantastic Four: First Steps – Marvel is all-in on Fantastic Four being their center of gravity this year, and setting up the back to back Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars.
This super-team plays a significant role in both of those upcoming films, and expectations – as well as blood pressures, I’m sure – are high at the studio for this year’s tentpole to succeed. They can’t have another situation like the one that happened around Kang and the box office failure of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania threatening their entire future plans yet again. The entire reason everything now depends on Fantastic Four setting up the two Avengers films is precisely because this plan replaced the original Avengers: The Kang Dynasty setup.
But the foursome were always destined to play an oversized role in the MCU’s future. It’s impossible to imagine a Marvel universe with the Fantastic Four in which they don’t play a major role in the events of that universe, as one of the best and most popular superhero teams.
The rero aesthetic and 1960s setting, coupled with some smart casting at the right time and fun marketing that culminated in some excellent trailers so far, makes Fantastic Four look the part of a Marvel blockbuster capable of making a run at a billion dollars, but I’m not ready to get that far ahead just yet.
While Deadpool & Wolverine topped $1.3 billion last summer and launched myriad “Marvel is back” headlines, don’t forget Captain America: Brave New World just played to a soft $414 million despite the franchise’s past box office highs and the inclusion of a Red Hulk played by Harrison Ford.
Not that I think Fantastic Four will disappoint in that dollar range, but rather that it still remains to be seen just how much audiences are truly ready to dive back into superhero cinema again. The event status and popularity of the two leads in last summer’s billion dollar winner doesn’t inherently translate to a full change of heart again for viewers.
Lastly, there’s the fact these Fantastic Four characters have already been adapted to the big-screen in three previous theatrical releases (plus one infamous unreleased project). The 2005 Fantastic Four from director Tony Story grossed $333 million (about $545 million in modern bucks), earning bad reviews and a middling B-grade from audiences via Cinemascore, and its sequel Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer got more bad reviews and another B score from viewers, taking about $302 million at the box office. The villains in those films? Doctor Doom, Galactus, and Silver Surfer – the same villains Marvel is about to reintroduce. Will the past create a drag on the present?
So for now, I’m thinking Fantastic Four looks like it can play at the level of Guardians of the Galaxy, in the $800 millions. Which is great, even if not the billion dollar business I’ve no doubt the studio and most fans expect and hope for. But I believe studios need to meet audiences where they are, and in today’s climate I think an $800+ performance for Fantastic Four will be plenty to prove its staying power and set up the two Avengers sequels. That earns the team a healthy second-place finish for summer.
Superman – Rounding out the top-three films in my summer power rankings is the Man of Steel himself, as the DC cinematic universe takes flight with a reboot hoping to finally score the popular success enjoyed by Marvel but which has so far eluded DC.
Superman releases a week after Jurassic Park: Rebirth, and two weeks before Fantastic Four: First Steps, with Smurfs debuting in that two week period as well. So DC has to not only stick the landing – er, the flying – with the film itself, but also hold off a lot of tough competition out the gate.
Luckily, the trailer earned the biggest viewership of any trailer in DC or WB history, at 250 million in 24 hours. The brightness, the tone, and most of all THE DOG – Krypto – have already captured the imaginations of a lot of people beyond merely the built-in fandom. Superman remains a major brand, however tainted DC’s overall brand became, because the character built up a great deal of good will for decades in comics, on TV, and on film. Whenever he failed, he returned and reminded us why we loved him and hoped for him to succeed.
Superman’s trailer made us hopeful that he’s going to succeed again, and that looks like it’s going to go a long way. The bottom line is, Superman will probably open big, and as long as it delivers what the trailers look like it delivers – and having James Gunn’s name attached strongly suggests it will deliver that and more – it should play somewhere around $700-800 million.
At the moment, I believe Fantastic Four: First Steps will perform higher and take the second spot on the summer charts, because the MCU’s history and comps all point to a big run, the cast and crew likewise suggest great things, and it doesn’t bring the same baggage – nor the same proximity to said baggage – that Superman unfortunately brings. That puts Superman in third place, but make no mistake, this should be more than enough to celebrate as a rousing victory and successful relaunch of the DC brand.
I did a deep dive into Superman and how the future of DC cinema rests on the film’s broad shoulders, so be sure to read that for even more details.
Next up are the wild cards on the second tier of summer blockbusters, and any of them could potentially overperform enough to move up into the top-five, should one of the above pictures stumble or merely play at the lower end of expectations.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning – Last summer’s fantastic but slightly underperforming Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 wound up the fourth-highest grossing entry in the saga at $571 million, after a series-high $791 million from Mission: Impossible – Fallout.
Of course, the fact Dead Reckoning put up such numbers against Barbie and Oppenheimer should tell you something about how well it played. Without such overwhelming competition, it might have performed closer to Fallout. Even tracking points to Final Reckoning opening to a record high for the franchise – but many of us expected that for Dead Reckoning, and we were wrong.
But for whatever it’s worth, the trend for the series is to alternate, odd-numbered chapters performer lower and even-numbered chapters usually see an increase, which bodes well for this eighth film. And even as an underperformance, Dead Reckoning was still an undeniable blockbuster hit with excellent reviews and high-wattage star power in the form of Tom Cruise.
This is also promoted as Cruise’s final appearance in the series. Whether that holds up or not remains to be seen, but at nearly 63 years old, it’ll be hard for the star to continue delivering such action-packed spectacles relying on his ability to hang off airplanes and other such death-defying stunts. The timeliness of a story about AI becoming self-aware and threatening humanity should also help boost its prospects.
I expect Final Reckoning to easily top $600 million and make a power-run at $700 million. It may not become the highest-grossing entry of the series, but I suspect it’ll at least score a second-place finish among Mission: Impossible grosses.
Thunderbolts* – Marvel gets the summer season underway next weekend with an outside-the-box team-up of sidekicks and villains, counting on their misfit charm and humor with a heavy dose of extra empathy to up the appeal of MCU superheroics and action spectacle from lesser-known characters (at this point, anyway).
The start of summer and Marvel’s brand are usually good for a blockbuster result, but of course the Covid era and whatever we’re living through now (post-Covid? continued Covid?) has seen a few MCU entries stumble or even face-plant.
That said, none have done so in this May frame, and even Covid-era saw Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 do blockbuster business ringing in the summer ($955.7 million and $845.5 million, respectively). But those were sequels to previous blockbuster hits, with much more cross-genre sensibilities and more constantly eye-popping fantasy/sci-fi visual effects.
An untested new franchise of lesser-known or unknown characters and only a few bigger “star” names on the poster, then, raises the question of whether it plays like a down-to-earth version of Guardians of the Galaxy, or more like another Suicide Squad sequel with diminishing returns.
So far, advance reactions are mostly positive and buzz is growing. Even if Thunderbolts* performs lower than past blockbuster MCU sequels opening in the same frame, even a $600+ million outcome would be more than acceptable for Marvel as a setup for the studio’s main event this year – Fantastic Four: First Steps.
An underperformance might see Thunderbolts* landing closer to Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s $476 million gross in February 2023. But I’d say while that would certainly be considered a disappointment, it wouldn’t be as bad as it felt for the third film in an existing franchise that’s introducing the MCU’s supposed next “big bad.”
Thunderbolts* surely would’ve benefited from a simple cameo scene by Chris Evans’ elderly Steve Rogers (why wouldn’t Sam and/or Bucky visit him to have coffee and catch up?) and a special “teaser” trailer look at Avatar: Fire and Ash ahead of that film’s full trailer (likely attached to Fantastic Four: First Steps) before it takes over the box office in December. But perhaps Marvel doesn’t think Thunderbolts* needs the help, and prefers to see how strong it stands entirely on its own – especially with so many big changes imminently ahead for the team and the MCU.
The rest of the summer slate offers several additional would-be/likely blockbusters and possible breakouts. Let’s consider two main contenders…
Lilo & Stitch – Memorial Day weekend is among the biggest of the year for theaters, and Lilo & Stitch looks to make good use of the holiday to
The trailer was Disney’s second-most viewed trailer in its first day for a live-action movie, racking up almost 160 million viewers. The film trended as the top topic on some social media sites, and hit tracking earlier this month at well north of $100 million for its freshman weekend.
And of course, Lilo & Stitch is a popular franchise with kids and families, the 2002 original animated Disney film taking $273 million and subsequent spinoffs and sequels released on home media and TV continued to build the fanbase and generate good revenue streams.
Opening two weeks after Thunderbolts* and alongside Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, and then facing family-favorite Karate Kid: Legends a week later, could suppress Lilo & Stitch’s opening and legs by cutting into its target audiences. Not so much it won’t still be successful, but enough to prevent it from landing among summer’s top-tier blockbusters.
Karate Kid: Legends – This is my pick for most likely to become a breakout hit. The popularity of the Cobra Kai series on Netflix and built-in nostalgia factor across generations for the franchise and characters, combined with the sheer qualitative rise in the storytelling and its emotional arcs, should help propel this sequel-restart even higher than the 2010 reboot Karate Kid’s $359 million (about $526 million in adjusted dollars, for those who care about such things).
Since then, the brand name has only gotten more popular with the streaming show introducing new generations of fans and bringing back longtime fans. If it delivers the goods like Cobra Kai and the best of the films, then I think it can top $500 million. By how much, we’ll see, but this film already seems destined to punch above its weight.
Three other summer releases – How to Train Your Dragon , Smurfs , and Elio – will also have potential for anything from $400-500 million territory, to a breakout into the second tier with $600-700 million. However, I think these films scoring breakouts will necessitate some other films stumbling and underperforming.
Jurassic Park Meets Fire And Ash
While Jurassic World: Rebirth looks likely to dominate the summer box office and breath new life into the Jurassic Park franchise, that doesn’t mean the summer chart-topper will own the 2025 yearly rankings.
Christmas season brings the true apex box office predator back to the big screens when Avatar: Fire and Ash inevitably sets box office records and almost certainly tops $2 billion or more worldwide. Likewise, Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 should easily deliver enormous revenue that matches or tops the biggest summer blockbusters. So as exciting as summer season is about to be, “winter is coming” as the saying goes.
But that’s another conversation for a later time. It’s a beautiful summer, the Jurassic Parks are open, and people are about to have a wonderful time.
