Stores Are Importing More Stuff While They Still Can

Retailers are loading up on merchandise from overseas, hoping to get ahead of tariffs and a potential strike by dockworkers.

That’s according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, which released a report Monday showing a surge in traffic in U.S. ports, especially on the West Coast. The volume of merchandise brought in at U.S. seaports was up 9% in October from the year before and up 29% over the year at Los Angeles-Long Beach, the nation’s largest port complex. Hackett expects the surge to continue through the end of the year.

Retailers may be attempting to stock up now to get ahead of potential disruptions coming in the new year, the advocacy group and consultancy firm said.

First, on Jan. 15, a temporary contract between an important dockworkers union and the companies that operate the ports is set to expire, reviving the threat of a strike that shut down ports from New England to Texas this fall.

Then, on Jan. 20, Donald Trump will be sworn in as president again, and he has promised to raise import taxes, which would make it costlier to bring goods into the country. Trump said he would order new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China his first day in office.

“It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement the tariffs, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as the can before then,” Ben Hackett, founder of the consulting firm wrote in the Global Port Tracker report.

The Tariff Threat

A key question for importers of goods and consumers who buy products made overseas is whether Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China was a negotiation ploy or if he will actually implement them.

Trump’s picks for key financial roles in his administration provide a mixed picture. Financial markets cheered his selection of Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary, the top economic post, viewing him as a moderate voice on tariffs. However, other picks, including Howard Lutnick as commerce secretary and Peter Navarro as trade negotiator, point in the opposite direction.

Tariffs would drive up the prices of all kinds of consumer goods, economists said. For example, the NRF estimates that Trump’s policies would push the price of a $40 toaster to $48-$52.

Strike Two

The other major threat, the union strike, hinges on a dispute between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance, which represents ports and shipping lines.

Unions oppose port operators’ plans to automate more processes, including installing new types of cranes. The owners say the upgrades will make the ports more efficient, while the union argues they will cost jobs.

Hackett saw few signs the two sides would reach an agreement in time to prevent a strike.

“The threat of a work stoppage in mid-January looks greater than ever,” he said.