Republicans Could Make History With One-Party Government Shutdown

The Republican-led government could be the first in history to oversee a major government shutdown while controlling the House of Representatives, Senate, and the White House.

Congress has until March 14 to pass bills funding the federal government, If they can’t, many agencies will at least partially shut down, and employees will be sent home.

Since 1981, the government has shut down 10 times, including three major shutdowns lasting more than a week, and they all were the result of partisan standoffs over spending. None of them have occurred while one party controlled the White House, House of Representatives and the Senate.

However, President Donald Trump could be the first president to have a shutdown while his party has majorities in the House and Senate.

Medicaid Could Be the Sticking Point

As of Tuesday afternoon, political betting markets were predicting a government shutdown in mid-March is likely, with Polymarket placing the odds at more than 60%. The Republicans’ slim majority in the House and Senate complicates their efforts to pass a budget bill.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, is attempting to pass a budget framework that includes up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts paired with $2 trillion in budget cuts over 10 years. The cuts reportedly include up to an $880 billion reduction in Medicaid, the government’s health insurance program mainly for people with low incomes.

Some Republican lawmakers have shown reluctance to support Medicaid cuts that could hurt their constituents, putting the bill’s future in jeopardy. The Republicans have only a three-seat majority in the House, so two defections could torpedo the bill and shut down the government, assuming no Democrats support it.

Trump has endorsed the bill despite promising last week not to cut the government’s major safety-net programs, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.