Key events
Second exit poll: too close to call
Second exit poll – OGB for Republika – backs this.
It’s too close to call.
Rafał Trzaskowski 50.17%
Karol Nawrocki 49.83%
Exit poll: Polish presidential election too close to call
Too close to call is the verdict.
Rafał Trzaskowski 50.3%
Karol Nawrocki 49.7%
That’s Ipsos for TVP, TVN and Polsat.
Any moment now…
Are you ready?
Exit poll is imminent.
What does it matter in terms of European politics?
Jon Henley
Poland’s presidential election runoff could have far-reaching implications for its place in Europe – either cementing the country’s hard-won seat at the EU’s top table, or heralding a return to altogether trickier times.
The return of Tusk, elected on a promise to undo most of the PiS-era reforms, led to a sea change in relations, with the EU rapidly unblocking more than €100bn of funds it had frozen in retaliation for Poland’s backsliding on democratic norms.
Bolstered by a thriving economy, rising prosperity and its strategic importance in the resistance to Russia’s war on Ukraine, Warsaw has transformed itself in two short years into one of the EU’s most influential capitals, best buddies with Berlin and Paris.
But its full return to the EU fold can be complete only if Tusk can deliver on those key reforms – in particular, rolling back PiS’s politicisation of the court system – that have so far been blocked by the outgoing PiS-aligned president, Andrzej Duda.
Why does it matter domestically?
Jakub Krupa
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said after the first round of the vote that the next two weeks would decide the future of Poland.
So let me give you some context on why it matters so much.
While the role of the Polish president is largely ceremonial, it carries some influence over foreign and defence policy and a critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a majority of three-fifths in parliament, which the current government does not have.
At stake is whether Tusk’s government will be able to make progress on its electoral promises on the rule of law and social issues, including abortion and LGBTQ rights, after 18 months of difficult cohabitation with the opposition president, Andrzej Duda.
A win for the opposition candidate, Karol Nawrocki, would prolong the current deadlock, making it difficult for the government to pass any major reforms before the 2027 parliamentary election.
But a win for the government candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, would open the way for the government to go ahead with the reforms in a bid to show their competence ahead of the 2027 vote.
Final minutes of Polish election – in pictures
Record-high presidential turnout in reach
One factor that got a lot of attention in the build up to the vote is the turnout.
The National Electoral Commission said it was 54.91% at 5pm, the highest-ever figure for Polish presidentials – but just below the all-time-high of the 2023 parliamentary election.
If you’re interested in exact numbers, it’s 2.8pp higher than at the same stage of the previous presidential election in 2020 (52.1%), and 4.2pp up than in the first round of this year’s vote, two weeks ago (50.7%).
It could well end up being the highest ever turnout for the presidentials. For reference, it was 68.2% in 2020.
What does it mean? Well – it could mean different things, and we would need to get into the weeds on geographical distribution, and so on.
So best not to speculate and keep it simple – and wait.
We’re just under 20 minutes away from the polls closing.
How to read exit poll
Jakub Krupa
For all the understandable focus on the exit poll at 9pm (8pm BST), let’s face one thing: yes, it will give us an indication on where the pollsters think we are, but do not be surprised if their top line is well within the margin of error.
On Friday, Ipsos Poland – which runs the main exit poll for three broadcasters, TVP, TVP and Polsat – warned that the exit poll has +/- 2% error for each candidate, with the later late exit poll – expected two hours later – narrowing it down to +/- 1%.
Given how close this race has been, it is not inconceivable that the difference between the two candidates will still be within that margin, and that means we will have to wait a bit longer.
Ipsos themselves said that, of course, they were well prepared for the challenge ahead, but would still need a bit more luck than usual.
There is also a second exit poll, by OGB for Republika (same caveats and rules on margins of error apply). They were pretty close in the first round, so I will bring you both sets of figures.
For context, here is our poll tracker looking at all the polls conducted and published before the country went into electoral silence on Friday night.
Jakub Krupa
60 minutes to go.
Both candidates cast their votes earlier today, surrounded by their closest family members.
And both of them voted in Warsaw, where they will also host their results parties tonight.
Poland chooses its next president
Jakub Krupa
Good evening, or dobry wieczór, from Warsaw, Poland.
We are less than 90 minutes away from the polls closing in what is the expected to be the closest Polish presidential election after the fall of communism in 1989.
The race pits the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by Donald Tusk’s politically-diverse governing coalition, against the historian and former amateur boxer Karol Nawrocki, endorsed by the populist-right Law and Justice (PiS) party that governed the country between 2015 and 2023.
Reporting from Warsaw, I will bring you all the key updates throughout the evening as we hope to find out who will be the next president of Poland.
Why does it matter, I hear you ask? Well, it’s Europe’s sixth largest economy, the highest GDP spender on defence within Nato, and a (so far) supportive ally of Ukraine. That’s to start with.
You can read our primer on what it means for Poland’s domestic politics and the position of the current government, led by former European Council president Donald Tusk, here.
If you fancy a broader look at Poland’s place in Europe and what tonight’s result could mean for that, here’s a broader analysis on that issue.
If you don’t want to read the entire thing just yet, don’t worry – I will bring you some key bullet points here.
The polls close 9pm local (8pm BST), and we will get exit polls numbers straight away.
It’s Sunday, 1 June 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here.
Let’s go. Zaczynamy.
