The majority of Americans believe the economy is getting worse rather than better, even as Republican views on the nation’s finances have performed a dramatic backflip since Donald Trump’s re-election, according to an exclusive poll conducted for the Guardian.
One month into Trump’s second presidency, a Harris poll found that 51% of Americans now believe that the US economy is worsening, while just 20% said it was improving and 29% said it was the same.
The poll, conducted this month, presents a worrying picture for Trump’s administration but also highlights the strength of his support and how his election has triggered a dizzying swing in voters’ views of the economy.
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39% of Republicans now believe the US economy is improving compared with just 8% last May. Over a quarter, 26%, believe it is worsening compared to 70% last May.
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69% of Democrats now believe the US economy is getting worse compared with 36% last May; 11% think it is getting better compared with 32% last May.
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Independent voters’ views have shifted the least with 12% believing the economy is improving (11% last May) and 56% thinking it is getting worse (59% last May).
Official figures show little change in the nation’s finances. Unemployment remains low, stock markets are high and the rate of inflation has slowed. But many Americans still wrongly believe the US is in a recession.
About 43% of Republicans currently believe that the US is in a recession, down from 67% in May last year. The rebound in Republican sentiment marks a noticeable shift compared with independents, 53% of whom thought the US was in recession last May compared with 46% now, and Democrats (49% now v. 50% in May ).
Poll after poll showed Democrats lost the 2024 election because people – especially Republicans – were unhappy with the economy. The latest Harris poll shows just how deeply Americans view the state of the US economy through a political lens.
Harris found support for Trump’s tariffs also comes down to party lines, with Democrats the most worried about their impact on the US economy. But in bad news for Trump, the majority of independents and more than a quarter of Republicans also believe tariffs will have a negative impact.
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49% of all polled said tariffs will have a negative impact on the US economy.
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43% of Republicans, 17% of Democrats and 19% of independents said the impact would be positive.
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28% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats and 54% of independents said it will have a negative impact.
While the staunch Republican supporters back the party, it’s clear not all Americans are feeling the euphoria of Trump re-entering the White House.
“The public’s economic perceptions now resemble a kid’s game of tetherball – slamming back and forth from bad to good based on whose party is in office,” said John Gerzema, CEO of Harris Poll. “Now let’s see if the administration can hold their supporter’s confidence and swing middle voters as they enact their hypersonic agenda over the next two years.”
The broad consensus that the US is in recession once again highlights the disconnect between official data and public sentiment. The US is not experiencing a recession and has not had one since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
But that hasn’t stopped Americans from feeling like the economy is bad. Anger over inflation probably played a major role in the outcome of the US election, as many Americans reported frustration over rising prices.
Trump promised to be the change candidate in his second term, criticizing Biden and Kamala Harris for high prices and promising to bring strength back to the US economy. But so far, any positive sentiment has mostly been felt by Republicans. Democrats and even independents appear skeptical.
This is especially clear when it comes to tariffs. Trump has called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” and has promised to overhaul US trade relations.
Trump appears to be staying true to his word. He delayed the 25% tariffs he was planning to place on Canadian and Mexican imports, but implemented a broad 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. Trump also said his administration would implement reciprocal tariffs against countries his advisers deem are being unfair to the US.
The president has said Americans could feel “some pain” due to the tariffs, but promised that the impact on the US economy will make it all worth it.
Few Americans agree. Only 26% of Americans said that Trump’s tariffs will have a noticeably positive impact on the US economy. And the optimism wanes particularly when it comes to impact on personal finances. Only 33% of Republicans believe that tariffs will positively impact their personal finances. In comparison, over half (52%) of Democrats and 45% of independents believe the impacts on personal finances will be negative.
Though tariffs have been making headlines since November, many Americans (40%) still wrongly believe that foreign countries exporting goods are the ones who pay tariffs. Tariffs are paid by companies that import foreign goods into America. But Republicans (48%) were more likely to believe that foreign companies pay the tax, compared with 32% of Democrats and 39% of independents who believed the same.
Even with more support from Republicans on his tariffs, Americans have a pessimistic outlook on the future of the US economy. Over half (60%) think the US will experience a recession in 2025, that includes 43% of Republicans and 62% of independents.
Views in the media’s coverage of the economy have also experienced a political U-turn. Democrats and independents believe the economy is worse than the media makes it out to be (69% and 66% v gen pop: 60%), Republicans think it’s better than the media make it out to be (56% v gen pop: 40%).
The post-election shift in views is once again on display. Today, 56% of Republicans believe the economy is better than the media portrayal compared with 26% in May last year while 31% of Democrats think it is better compared with 55% last May.
This survey was conducted online within the US by the Harris Poll from 13 to 15 February 2025, among a nationally representative sample of 2,131 US adults.
