Voters head to polls in local elections in England
Good morning. It’s started. People are already voting in the 2025 local elections. They are England-only, and there are around 1,600 council seats up for grabs (in some other years, there are more than 8,000 seats up for election in England alone), and so in some respects it’s a minor set of local elections. But you will never find a political commentator willing to say an election is not important and this year there is plenty to get excited about. That is partly because it is Labour’s first electoral test since the general election (and no governing party in modern times has seen its popularity collapse so quickly, as John Curtice pointed out this week). But mostly it is because two-party politics has collapsed, there are now five political parties that are competitive in England and the rise of Reform UK means a realignment of the right is already happening. These elections will show how developed that process is.
Today people are voting for:
-
More than 1,600 councillors in 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, one metropolitan council, and in the Isles of Scilly.
-
Six mayors – two of them are regional mayors where Labour won last time (West of England, and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough), two of them are regional mayors where elections are being held for the first time (Greater Lincolnshire, and Hull and East Yorkshire), and two of them are single-authority mayors where Labour won last time (Doncaster, and North Tyneside).
Here is Peter Walker’s morning preview story.
And, in his First Edition briefing, Archie Bland sets out what would count as a good result for all the main parties.
On polling day itself not a lot normally happens. But we’ve always got dogs at polling stations.
And there may be some non-election politics too. Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Jonathan Reynolds, business secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
After 10.30am: Lucy Powell, leader of the Commons, takes questions on next week’s Commons business.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Noon: John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, takes questions from MSPs.
If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (normally between 10am and 3pm at the moment), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.
I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
Key events
A reader asked BTL how the law saying it is an offence to publish information about how people vote on polling day affects exit polls.
Firstly, there are no exit polls for local elections. Or for byelections. That is not because they are banned; it is because news organisation don’t see the point.
With national elections, exit polls are allowed because they are published after polls close. It is not an offence to ask people how they voted; it is only an offence to publish that information while voting is still taking place.
(And, to the reader who pointed out that at MailOnline they let readers say how they voted in comments BTL – well, what do you expect? It’s a lawless hellhole down there – or at least, so I’m told. Our standards are different.)
Brexit led to rise in hospital death rates because EU nurses were replaced by less qualified staff, academic study says
Brexit led to an increase in the chances of patients dying in hospital because it led to EU nurses being replaced replaced quickly by less qualified non-EU nurses, academics have said.
They have made the claim in a study covering 131 hospitals in England, and almost 10m patients.
And they argue that the increase in the mortality risk attributable to Brexit was the equivalent of 1,485 extra deaths per year in the three years after the UK voted to leave the EU.
They have calculated this figure by looking at the relationship between hospital death rates and with the proportion of EU nurses employed, adjusting for other factors that might have affected mortality.
Prof Giuseppe Moscelli, professor of economics at the University of Surrey and the lead investigator for the study, said in a statement about his research:
Brexit has had real life-or-death consequences for patients in our hospitals. The evidence we’ve gathered shows that the loss of more experienced or skilled nurses has led to a measurable decline in care quality.
Our research provides two important take-home messages for taxpayers and policymakers. On the one hand, it underscores the critical role that skilled migrant nurses play within the healthcare system, particularly in emergency care, where the stakes are highest.
On the other hand, it highlights the considerable reliance of the NHS on foreign nurses and the need to balance this dependence with policies that stimulate the formation and training of a higher number of domestically trained healthcare professionals, to prevent similar quality of hospital service deteriorations in the future.
The report says:
Across English NHS hospitals, the pre-referendum share of EU nurses, among all nurses employed, ranged from 0.5 to 22%. As the Brexit vote was unanticipated, hospitals could not strategically plan for their workforce needs in advance, allowing us to compare patient health outcomes – in particular, in-hospital mortality and unplanned emergency readmissions – and other hospital organisation performance indicators before and after the Brexit referendum, using a continuous treatment difference-in-differences design based on the differential exposure to the Brexit shock due to heterogenous pre-referendum workforce composition …
After the Brexit referendum, for emergency patients admitted to a hospital with a mean pre-referendum share of EU nurses, the risk of in-hospital mortality increased by 5.31%, and the risk of unplanned emergency readmission increased by 2.28%. The estimate translates to about 4,454 additional hospital deaths in England during the post-referendum period and about 8,777 additional unplanned hospital readmissions.
We show that hospital organisations substituted the missing EU nurses by hiring non-European nurses after the referendum … Most importantly, however, we show that the missing inflow of EU nurses, and the implied change in the hospital nursing workforce composition, is the main mechanism through which hospital care performance was affected. In particular, our analysis suggests that the NHS hospitals changed the workforce composition of new joiner nurses: newly hired nurses after the referendum were employed in lower salary bands, which can be interpreted as a sign of lower qualifications, experience and skills.
Elections for two council seats representing a ward in North Northamptonshire have been postponed following the death of a candidate, the BBC is reporting.
Victims call for boycott of Troubles legacy body during protest in Belfast
Troubles victims urged other families bereaved in the Northern Ireland conflict to boycott a new legacy truth recovery and investigations body as they protested outside its office, PA Media reports. PA says:
The demonstration at the Independent Commission for Reconciliation and Information Recovery (ICRIR) in Belfast came on the first anniversary of the implementation of a legal guillotine that halted inquests and civil court cases linked to the Troubles.
That move came as part of the last UK government’s contentious Legacy Act.
The Act established the ICRIR as an alternative mechanism for families seeking truth and justice about the deaths of their loved ones.
While the Labour government has vowed to repeal and replace parts of the Act and reinstate inquests and civil cases, it is retaining the ICRIR.
Many bereaved families are unhappy with the retention of the commission and have vowed not to engage with it.
Victims have questioned the body’s independence and its ability to uncover answers about Troubles crimes.
Last year the court of appeal in Belfast part allowed an appeal taken against the Legacy Act, ruling there were breaches of both human rights law and the Windsor Framework that governs post-Brexit arrangements in Northern Ireland.
Among its findings, the court found that a government veto power over what sensitive material can be disclosed to bereaved families by the ICRIR is unlawful.
The court also ruled that the ICRIR does not provide victims and their next of kin adequate means to participate in its processes.
Paddy Clarke, whose brother Joey was killed by loyalist paramilitaries in south Belfast in 1975, was among victims who addressed the event outside the ICRIR office today.
He said: “Every time we get near the truth, or anything like it, the government introduces some new bill to hide the truth from the families. And I have absolutely no faith whatsoever in the ICRIR or any rings or bells they may put on it.
“The families know why it was introduced. They know it was introduced to protect the British government, the state agents and the ex-veterans, to protect them, not to help the families. And I would say to the rest of the families to please do not get engaged with this ICRIR, it is only a charade.”
In response to a request BTL for more #dogsatpollingstations …
Andrew Bridgen should have apologised to MPs over a late declaration relating to a loan totalling more than £4m, parliament’s standards watchdog has said. PA Media reports:
The former MP said he had not registered the funds from businessman and Reclaim party donor Jeremy Hosking because they were to pay for a “strictly private” matter rather than political purposes.
Parliament’s standards commissioner found that failing to register all of the loans within the 28-day timeframe set by Commons amounted to an “inadvertent” breach of the MPs’ code of conduct.
In a report published today, the Commons standards committee said it hoped Bridgen would “behave honourably and acknowledge that he was wrong, even if honestly wrong, to believe that the £4.47m … was not a registrable interest”.
The committee said: “We agree with the parliamentary commissioner for standards that he should have apologised to the house. The purpose for which the money was provided was private and personal; Mr Bridgen’s relationship with a political donor nonetheless raised sufficient reason to make such donations a matter for registration.”
Responding to the report’s conclusions, Bridgen said: “The committee concluded that I should apologise to the House. I believe that the House of Commons should apologise to the people for promoting the experimental vaccines as being ‘safe and effective’.”
Bridgen was expelled from the Conservative party after claiming that a cardiologist told him use of the jabs was “the biggest crime against humanity since the Holocaust”. He lost his seat at the general election.
UK agrees ‘fraud action plan’ with Nigeria
The Home Office has agreed an information-sharing deal ‘“fraud action plan” with Nigeria.
David Hanson, the fraud minister, signed the agreement after meeting in Abuja with his Nigerian counterparts. He said:
Our new agreement with Nigeria will help us better identify and stop fraud before it happens, crack down on criminals who exploit our systems, and ultimately protect the public from the devastating impact of fraud.
According to the Home Office’s news relase, the agreement involves:
information sharing and operational coordination, including the potential for joint law enforcement operations involving the UK’s National Crime Agency (NCA) and Nigeria’s Office of the National Security Adviser
development and strengthening of national fraud strategies through the exchange of best practice, frameworks, and lessons learned, along with potential joint public awareness campaigns to deter fraudsters
exploration of collaboration between financial, online, and telecoms regulators and industry bodies in both countries to help close loopholes exploited by criminals
sharing insights on the misuse of financial systems, with the potential for joint studies and research into emerging threats
identifying training needs and delivering capacity-building initiatives, starting with targeted training for Nigerian prosecutors by the UK’s Serious Fraud Office, with further programmes planned, subject to funding
Unite urges Birmingham council to ‘come to its senses’ ahead of resumed talks on resolving bin strike
Sharon Graham, the Unite general secretary, said Birmingham council needed to “come to its senses” ahead of talks today intended to resolve the bin strike in the city.
As PA Media reports, Graham is leading the union’s negotiating team in talks under the auspices of the conciliation service Acas over the council’s plans to delete the role of waste recycling and collection officer. The union says this will lead to some workers losing up to £8,000 a year, but the council says it is “undertaking a fair and transparent job evaluation process of the driver/team leader role, working with all trade union partners to ensure a fair outcome”.
Speaking outside Unite’s regional office in Birmingham before the talks resumed today, Graham said the city council’s leader John Cotton needed to be involved in the negotiations – something he has previously made clear he would not do.
She said:
We want the council to come to their senses today. We want the leader of the council John Cotton to come into the negotiating room. He has not yet been in the negotiating room and he needs to be so we can get this dispute solved.
He is the leader of the council, this is happening to his residents. This is happening across the board, there’s rubbish piling up. When you’re the leader, then you must take the accountability and the responsibility.
Graham said Unite wanted “to do a deal” but that it was up to the council. She went on:
Forty-eight hours ago, they announce the drivers who are likely to be losing £8,000. Why would you do that 48 hours before talks are due to take place? I hope that we can come to a deal, we’re here to do a deal, but really the ball is in the council’s court here.
Hundreds of workers at the energy regulator Ofgem are being balloted for strikes in a dispute over pay and jobs, PA Media reports. PA says:
More than 700 members of the Public and Commercial Services Union (PCS) in Glasgow, London and Cardiff will vote in the coming weeks on whether to launch a campaign of industrial action.
PCS general secretary Fran Heathcote said: “Ofgem managers have been deliberately provocative in their dealings with us. Rather than driving through sticking plaster solutions for organisation-wide problems, they should reach agreement with us before committing to changes that risk industrial action.”
One of the signs that Bluesky is functioning as a decent alternative to Elon Musk’s X is the fact that it has become a decent source for #dogsatpollingstations. Here are some of the nicer pictures I have seen there this morning.
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Met confirms counter-terrorism police investigating Kneecap over ‘kill MP’ and ‘up Hamas, up Hezbollah’ comments
The Metropolitan police has confirmed that counter-terrorism police are investigating footage that appears to show Irish language rap band Kneecap calling for politicians to be killed, and shouting “up Hamas, up Hezbollah”.
In a statement, the Met said:
On April 22, we were made aware of an online video believed to be from a music event in London in November 2024. Following this, we were made aware of a further video, believed to be from another music event in London in November 2023.
Both videos were referred to the Counter Terrorism Internet Referral Unit for assessment by specialist officers, who have determined there are grounds for further investigation into potential offences linked to both videos.
The investigation is now being carried out by officers from the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command and inquiries remain ongoing at this time.
Two days ago Kneecap apologised for the ‘kill MP’ comment, which it said had been “deliberately taken out of all context”. It also said it did not support Hamas or Hezbollah.
As Kevin Rawlinson reports, dozens of artists – including Pulp, Paul Weller and Primal Scream – have defended Kneecap, saying the attempt to silence or deplatform them is an attack on artistic freedom.
Solar panels to be fitted on all new-build homes in England by 2027
Almost all new homes in England will be fitted with solar panels during construction within two years, the government will announce after Keir Starmer rejected Tony Blair’s criticism of net zero policies, Eleni Courea reports.
Here is a Guardian guide to where local elections are taking place today.
Unite leader Sharon Graham says her members want net zero, but also want ‘secure jobs’ as part of transition
The Daily Mail is no great fan of trade unions, or the Jeremy Corbyn-supporting Unite union in particular. It is not that fond of Tony Blair either. But at the moment they seem to hate Ed Miliband and net zero even more, and so today the paper has – perhaps for the first time? – splashed on a story quoting Unite approvingly. It is prompted by the statement Unite issued yesterday about Blair’s comments about net zero.
In interviews this morning, Sharon Graham, the Unite general secretary, stressed that her union is not opposed to the goal of reducing carbon emissions to net zero. But what she does want is an assurance that good jobs are available for workers who lose out when oil and gas production gets run down.
She told Times Radio:
Workers want net zero, my members have no problem with net zero. The problem that we’ve got is that there is no investment currently about how we get to that and also secure jobs …
We don’t have the vision yet of what we could be realising. We could be … the European capital for the production of green steel. We can be the people that make the wind turbines. We can be the one of the world producers of SAF [sustainable aviation fuel]. This country’s got the skills, we’ve got the know-how, we’ve got the workers that can do that. Why are we delaying even further getting that infrastructure in place? It’s totally and utterly wrong.
Here is the latest edition of the Guardian’s Politics Weekly UK podcast. John Harris has been to Doncaster, the only council where elections are taking place currently under Labour control. At least one poll suggests it will lose to Reform UK.
It’s a nice day for voting in England. Yesterday the Green party said it was likely to be “the hottest local election day on record”. Here are two pictures of people arriving to vote.
At 10.30am an energy minister will respond to an urgent question from Labour’s Gareth Snell, MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central, asking for a statement on “the government’s approach to reducing energy prices for energy intensive industries”.
In the Commons Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, is taking questions. Asked by the Green MP Ellie Chowns if he agreed that a new trade deal with the EU should include a youth mobility scheme, linking the UK with the EU’s emissions trading schme and aligning on chemical regulations.
In his reply, Reynolds said he did not want to comment on the details of the negotiation. But he said that he did want it to address the “barriers” Chowns mentioned and he said he wanted the UK to have “the best and most frictionless trade possible with the EU”.
Voters head to polls in local elections in England
Good morning. It’s started. People are already voting in the 2025 local elections. They are England-only, and there are around 1,600 council seats up for grabs (in some other years, there are more than 8,000 seats up for election in England alone), and so in some respects it’s a minor set of local elections. But you will never find a political commentator willing to say an election is not important and this year there is plenty to get excited about. That is partly because it is Labour’s first electoral test since the general election (and no governing party in modern times has seen its popularity collapse so quickly, as John Curtice pointed out this week). But mostly it is because two-party politics has collapsed, there are now five political parties that are competitive in England and the rise of Reform UK means a realignment of the right is already happening. These elections will show how developed that process is.
Today people are voting for:
-
More than 1,600 councillors in 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, one metropolitan council, and in the Isles of Scilly.
-
Six mayors – two of them are regional mayors where Labour won last time (West of England, and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough), two of them are regional mayors where elections are being held for the first time (Greater Lincolnshire, and Hull and East Yorkshire), and two of them are single-authority mayors where Labour won last time (Doncaster, and North Tyneside).
Here is Peter Walker’s morning preview story.
And, in his First Edition briefing, Archie Bland sets out what would count as a good result for all the main parties.
On polling day itself not a lot normally happens. But we’ve always got dogs at polling stations.
And there may be some non-election politics too. Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Jonathan Reynolds, business secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
After 10.30am: Lucy Powell, leader of the Commons, takes questions on next week’s Commons business.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Noon: John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, takes questions from MSPs.
If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (normally between 10am and 3pm at the moment), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.
I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
