There aren’t a lot of countries Israel’s prime minister can visit without risking arrest. Which makes the red-carpet treatment Benjamin Netanyahu received in Hungary — Europe’s only proud “illiberal democracy” — all the more noteworthy.
Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, invited Mr. Netanyahu right after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant last November for his country’s alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip. And within hours the Israeli president’s arrival in Hungary last week, Mr. Orban announced his country’s withdrawal from the court.
There are several things going on here, analysts say, which tie together the affinities of Mr. Orban, Mr. Netanyahu and President Trump.
Bonding: The International Criminal Court is the most ambitious and idealistic — if deeply imperfect — version of an global judicial system to enforce human rights. Most liberals love it. Mr. Orban, Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trump hate it.
Signaling: Mr. Orban is telling the world that Hungary does what it wants: It may be a member of the European Union, but it is not constrained by it. He’s telling China and Russia that Hungary is open for business. And he’s telling his voters at home that it’s Hungary First all the way.
Testing boundaries: At a moment when global institutions are crumbling and a new order has not yet emerged, no one knows what’s allowed and what’s forbidden anymore.
Leaders vs. the judiciary
Hungary is not the first country to make exceptions for Israel. The United States and Germany have long done so. Friedrich Merz, Germany’s incoming chancellor, has also ruled out arresting Mr. Netanyahu, even as Germany remains a committed member of the International Criminal Court.
Hungary is also not the first signatory to the Rome Treaty that established the court to ignore it. When President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia visited Mongolia last year, it took no action on an I.C.C. warrant against him.
But Mr. Orban’s defiance of the court is also about something else: a desire to sideline independent judges, both at home and abroad.
“Quite simply, some international institutions have become political bodies,” he told a Hungarian radio program on Friday. “Unfortunately, the International Criminal Court is one of these. It is a political court.”
The power struggles between leaders and judges — whether international or domestic — have become a defining political theme in many countries, including Hungary, Israel, Brazil and the United States.
Mr. Orban, in power since 2010, is seen by conservatives worldwide as a pioneer in asserting power over the judiciary. He has packed Hungary’s constitutional court with loyalist judges and forced others to resign. He has battled against European Union courts and blasted their “judicial overreach” when they take Hungary to task for violating E.U. rules.
Mr. Netanyahu, who has denounced bribery and fraud charges against him in Israel as an effort to derail the will of voters, is pushing for his own controversial judicial overhaul. He and his allies have argued that the judiciary has granted itself increased authority, and is not representative of the diversity of Israeli society.
Mr. Trump, who was convicted on 34 felony counts before being re-elected last year, says that the many legal cases against him were politically motivated. In recent weeks, his administration has defied several court orders, which could eventually lead to a constitutional crisis. And in February, he signed an executive order placing sanctions on I.C.C. officials in response the arrest warrant for Mr. Netanyahu.
All three leaders — Mr. Netanyahu, Mr. Orban and Mr. Trump — talked on the phone about the court during the Israeli leader’s visit to Hungary. Mr. Netanyahu visited the White House on Monday, and his office said the I.C.C. was again going to be on the agenda.
“It takes a lawless autocrat like Orban to welcome rather than arrest an accused war criminal like Netanyahu,” said Kenneth Roth, a visiting professor at Princeton and the former executive director of Human Rights Watch. Mr. Trump’s imposition of sanctions on I.C.C. staff, he said, “is of a piece with Orban’s move.”
Hungary First
As Orban is strategically bonding, he is also strategically signaling to allies, investors and voters that Hungary will not be constrained by international rules and norms. It’s a form of identity building, says one prominent thinker about democracy.
“Orban is playing special relations — special relations with the Russia, special relations with Trump, special relations with the Chinese,” said Ivan Krastev, chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies. “He’s trying to create a story of Hungary being the member of the European Union that can do what they want. ”
“So if somebody wants to invest in a country in the EU, go with Hungary,” Mr. Krastev said. “Because they can do what they want. They can veto sanctions. They can leave the International Criminal Court. They’re kind of the only free spirit in the E.U.”
Mr. Orban has called fellow European leaders “warmongers” because of their support for Ukraine. He’s openly lobbying for re-establishing relations with Russia after the war. Welcoming Israel’s prime minister in defiance of the international court was another opportunity for him to showcase Hungary’s contrarian sovereignty.
Mr. Krastev sees Mr. Netanyahu’s visit as a precedent — and perhaps preparation — for an even more controversial invitation for someone like Mr. Putin down the line.
Mr. Orban laid out his grand strategy for Hungary in a wide-ranging and detailed speech last July, in which he outlined his vision of a new emerging world order. As he sees it, Western liberalism has lost and nationalism is back. For the next decades, or perhaps centuries, the dominant center of the world will be in Asia, he predicted.
For a small economy like Hungary, that means ignoring any marching orders from Brussels or Washington to isolate Moscow or Beijing.
“We will not get involved in the war against the East,” he said. “We will not join in the formation of a technological bloc opposing the East, and we will not join in the formation of a trade bloc opposing the East.”
China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, during a visit to Hungary last year, promised to invest in the country and open up opportunities for Hungarian firms to invest in China.
“We have received an offer from China,” Mr. Orban said. “We will not get a better one.”
Trump’s world order
Mr. Orban’s defiant welcome of Mr. Netanyahu has highlighted one way the world has changed since Mr. Trump came to power: By throwing out the global rule book on longstanding alliances and trade rules, the American president has given permission to others to break the rules too.
They are now testing just how far they can go.
“No one knows what’s allowed and what’s forbidden anymore,” Mr. Krastev said. “They’re testing the boundaries.”
But Trump’s ideological allies are also experiencing firsthand the unpredictability of the Trump administration, whose policies won’t necessarily be favorable to their countries. Israel and Hungary — a major site of production for Germany’s car industry — are among the major exporting countries that have been hit with significant U.S. tariffs.
That’s the intrinsic paradox of “America First” for leaders like Mr. Orban and Mr. Netanyahu: It’s one thing to make common cause with an ally who shares your nationalist agenda. It’s another when “America First” policies put every other country last.
