Key Takeaways
- Home prices in March declined slightly from February. However, on an annual basis, they’ve increased every quarter since 2012, according to two recent reports.
- While home prices climbed on an annual basis, they’ve risen less than 1 percent over the past six months.
- High mortgage rates are behind the modest fall, as sellers are forced to lower prices amid affordability challenges.
The spring home selling season is in full swing, but new data shows some sellers may be cutting prices as affordability issues continue to plague the market.
Home prices showed signs of cooling in March, according to two recent reports. The seasonally adjusted S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index was 0.3% lower in March when compared with February, while the closely watched 20-city index also declined by 0.1% from the prior month. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported a similar monthly decline in home prices.
“Amid weak demand stemming from elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, sellers were pushed to trim prices to cinch a deal,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Economics.
Annual Home-Price Growth Slowing as High Mortgages Take Toll
Home prices have appreciated at an annual level in every quarter since 2012, the FHFA report showed. But the new data may indicate that prices are starting to give way amid affordability challenges that stem from high mortgage rates and limited inventory in the housing market.
“While one month does not make a trend, there’s no arguing that affordability needs to improve,” Guatieri said. “And if borrowing costs aren’t falling, then some mix of price weakness and income strength will be required.”
While home prices in the Case-Shiller survey were still 3.4% higher than a year ago, March home price increases slowed their pace from February. Additionally, Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, noted that only 0.9% of the housing appreciation occurred in the past six months.
“This pattern underscored a broad cooling trend in second-half 2024 home prices even as spring 2025 arrived,” Godec said.
The slip in prices comes as borrowing costs remain high. At 6.89% as of Thursday, mortgage rates as reported by Freddie Mac are at their highest levels since February and are well above September’s 12-month low, when borrowing costs were just over 6%.
“Home-price growth may be decelerating, but housing affordability is still at its worst point in history,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “For home shoppers, relief won’t come until prices drop along with mortgage rates. Both of those, at this point, look unlikely this year.”
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