Key Takeaways
- The job market lost some steam in February ahead of major tariff announcements, as uncertainty put a damper on hiring, and the federal government laid off thousands of workers.
- The number of job openings edged down to 7.6 million from 7.8 million, weaker than the median forecast, which called for the figure to remain unchanged.
- Trump’s tariff policy announcements have stoked uncertainty among business leaders, who are reluctant to make major investments until they can be sure of future trade policies.
Hiring lost a bit of steam in February, as President Donald Trump’s uncertainty about trade policy, and mass layoffs of federal workers bit into the job market.
U.S. employers had 7.6 million job openings in February, down from 7.8 million in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. Forecasters had expected that figure to hold steady, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
Other measures of the job market also got worse for workers: layoffs ticked up to 1.8 million from 1.7 million in January, hiring slowed slightly, staying at 5.4 million after rounding, and 3.2 million quit their jobs, down from 3.3 million in January, suggesting workers had less ability to leave their current positions for better pay.
Tuesday’s report on the bureau’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed the job market staying roughly in its low-hiring, low-firing limbo, adding detail to an earlier report showing the economy gained jobs that month, although fewer than expected. The job market has been wavering amid uncertainty surrounding how Trump’s trade wars will play out and an uptick of job losses among federal workers laid off by Trump advisor Elon Musk’s DOGE cost-cutting task force.
“The February JOLTS supports our view of a softening, but not tottering, labor market,” Michael Bugay, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, wrote in a commentary.
In February, financial markets were socked by Trump’s announcements of tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. That uncertainty has only grown ahead of Wednesday when Trump plans to announce a fresh round of tariffs against other countries in an event he calls “Liberation Day.”
Business leaders and economists have warned tariffs could drive up the cost of living and slow the economy. Economists anticipate the trade war will push up the unemployment rate, and risks plunging the economy into a recession.
“Elevated economic policy uncertainty began to weigh on labor demand in February, but a bigger decline likely lies ahead, given the further step-up in uncertainty over the past month,” Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a commentary.
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