Barcelona are too young, inexperienced and daring in their high defensive line — they are not ready for this test of all tests.
Real Madrid are struggling, tired from too many games, and badly miss their injured and departed stars.
That’s exactly what the harshest cynics will be saying in response to the idea that we could be two knockout rounds away from a first-ever Clásico UEFA Champions League/European Cup final across the 70 years since this mighty competition was born.
Then there are the diehards who support Arsenal, Paris Saint-Germain or Internazionale (those teams in particular), all of whom crave reaching the Munich finale. They’ll be grinding their teeth angrily at the very idea that it’s going to be a Madrid vs. Barça winner-takes-all showdown. Understandably too!
And although the last time Bayern Munich qualified for the final in their own Allianz Arena they suffered indescribable pain and humiliation (losing to Chelsea in simply remarkable circumstances) their players, staff and fans would probably all cut off a minor appendage in exchange for the guarantee of them being there on May 31.
The Champions League is a quixotic, often bittersweet object of desire so let’s face the truth: the two Spanish behemoths could, if they drop their standards this week, already be clinging on to survival in this elite competition and we’re only at the quarterfinal stage.
Just a little dose of realism.
But, for the moment, let me try to make the case that it’s desirable for Madrid and Barcelona’s fanatical fans and also the world’s neutral soccer lovers that there’s a Clásico final in Bavaria just over seven weeks from now.
First things first.
Over the last 30 years the Clásico has inarguably proven to be the only gigantic global-impact soccer match which never, ever, fails to provide brilliant entertainment. The only match that is never strangled and reduced by nerves and tension, or risk-averse tactics, is when Barcelona and Real Madrid play one another. No matter where — no matter under what circumstances — quality, drama, technical excellence and strategic brilliance are a nailed-on guarantee.
That’s not a bad case for them meeting in the Champions League final, is it?
Then the spice in the sauce.
Losing, for either of these grand clubs is an anathema at the best of times. But losing a Champions League final to their most-hated, most-feared rival is the stuff of screaming nightmares.
As Atlético Madrid found out in 2014 and 2016 thanks to final defeats against Real Madrid, to discover that there really are bogeymen under the bed — that those noises in the wardrobe when the lights go out at night aren’t your imagination but your worst fears made real — hurts like nothing on Earth. The damage stings for years and years and years.
This is precisely what draws a massive world audience when two bitterly opposed rivals meet: think of boxing’s George Foreman vs. Muhammad Ali, New Zealand vs. South Africa in rugby, England vs. Australia in the Ashes of cricket, and USA vs. Europe in golf’s Ryder Cup.
The event is huge, the quality is gigantic, the victor’s laurel wreaths assure that you are an all-time great. But the edge, the mutual dislike, the knowledge that defeat will brand you as a “loser” for all time — that’s what makes the combat irresistible to supporters, neutrals, advertisers, sponsors, broadcasters, reporters and fanatics alike.
Case made? I think so.
Inconveniently, however, there is always the question about “the field.” The rivals. Despite a wide variety of bookmakers selecting European champions Madrid and the young-pretenders, Barcelona as second and third favorites for the tournament, behind PSG, both clubs face tests of fire if they are to reach Munich.
Let’s start with Los Blancos. The adjectives at the top of this column are true. Madrid aren’t playing particularly well and while they’re not quite running on empty and surviving on fumes, it has been grit, determination and character rather than effervescence, invention and brilliant talent which have recently kept them alive in LaLiga, the Copa del Rey and the defence of this trophy which they most crave: the Champions League.
Against Arsenal they should be better man for man, coach vs. coach, in experience, know-how and, if we’re brutally honest, hunger.
Right now, however, there are a couple of key elements.
Madrid simply can’t keep a clean sheet (just two in their last 16 matches). And the man who’s been so fundamental to them doing different things to any other European clubs in recent years, Vinícius Júnior, is not only out of form he’s a little bit out of favour with teammates and fans.
Maybe they defeat Mikel Arteta’s side, but Carlo Ancelotti’s team are making a habit of conceding from corners this season, while Arsenal have made a habit of scoring from them.
For the sake of argument, let’s say the European champions stride onwards and face the newly re-crowned French champions, PSG, who, at their best, look like they are ready to snatch away Real Madrid’s crown. They are daringly coached. The squad have completely grasped how Luis Enrique wants them to play and, if you get Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola and Désiré Doué simultaneously hitting fifth gear then PSG can look unstoppable.
That would be a semifinal for the ages. Arguably the club that have never yet won the Champions League would start favorites against the club which have done so 15 times. Wow.
2:16
Moreno: Dortmund don’t have a chance vs. Barcelona in the UCL
Alejandro Moreno assesses Borussia Dortmund’s Champions League hopes after their 4-1 win vs. Freiburg.
Let’s go to the other side of the draw.
Those writing off Borussia Dortmund in their test against Barcelona may have forgotten two things: when the two sides met this season it was a humdinger of a match, ending 3-2 in Barça’s favor. But Dortmund could easily have won.
Equally, some may have forgotten that the luck of the draw means Barcelona play the second leg in front of the Yellow Wall — not a place for the faint hearted, and in theory, not a place for the young and inexperienced. A Catalan team full of teenagers are playing as if they were all battle-hardened, seen-it-all warriors. But they’re not: only the 36-year-old Robert Lewandowski has lifted this trophy before.
Should Barcelona make it through, they go up against one of two clubs who know what it’s like to win whether they’re playing well or not. You take your best guess about whether Inter or Bayern will be semifinalists, but I think it will be Simone Inzaghi’s Inter team.
Recent collisions between Barcelona and Inter have been absolutely knife-edge stuff. This time there would be a threat that the physically bigger, more experienced, more ruthless side might bully a bunch of talented kids like Hansi Flick’s team. We shall see.
Spain already has two more imminent Clásicos: April 26 in the Copa final then, a fortnight later, a potential LaLiga title-decider. Bear in mind that the last two Clásicos this season produced 11 goals on a 9-2 aggregate in Barcelona’s favour; about a goal every quarter of an hour and a pair of staggeringly entertaining matches.
So, with the quarterfinals looming, keep these things in mind: every time there’s been a Clásico in the European Cup or Champions League the winner has always gone on to the final; the last time Madrid and Barcelona met, in those brutal 2011 semifinals, it produced seismic events of quality and controversy which captivated the entire world; and, if these two clubs do reach the final in Munich then, considering the rivals they’ll have left behind, they’ll deserve our attention and respect.
