Several European countries have issued travel warnings or advisories for their citizens intending to travel to the United States.
The summer months are a popular time for American leisure travelers to head across the Atlantic to Europe, but the volley of aircraft crossing “the pond” has long been bi-directional. While Americans may take in the Eiffel Tower, Colosseum, and Big Ben on their summer trips, they’re often shoulder-to-shoulder on transatlantic flights with Europeans coming stateside to see the Golden Gate Bridge, Grand Canyon, and Empire State Building.
This summer, however, could be different. The French hotel group Accor warned that bookings at the company’s U.S. hotels for the summer months are off 25%. Accor operates 46 hotels in the U.S., including Fairmont, Sofitel, 21c Museum Hotel, and Swissotel.
Early this week, Virgin Atlantic noted that demand for U.S. flights has been slowing, although they were careful not to say whether the drop was concentrated among inbound international travelers. Last week, the heads of three major European airline consortiums, Air France-KLM, Lufthansa Group, and British Airways parent IAG, all offered caution that transatlantic demand isn’t as expected to be as robust this summer as last. While European airlines typically carry traffic that originates on both sides of the Atlantic, travelers originating in Europe tend to make up a larger share of their traffic.
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It’s also worth noting that 2024 was a record-breaking year for transatlantic travel, so airlines have a high bar to reach to match last year’s performance.
Several European countries have issued travel warnings or advisories for their citizens intending to travel to the United States. Germany, the United Kingdom, and Portugal have warned their citizens that they should expect more stringent enforcement of entry requirements. They have also reminded citizens that they are not guaranteed entry to the U.S. even if they have the proper travel documents or visas, and cautioned travelers not to misrepresent the purpose of their visit.
The warnings come after well-publicized cases involving lengthy detentions of European citizens at border crossings, including one German tourist who was detained for six weeks and another from Wales who was detained for three weeks before ultimately being released to return to their respective countries.
Canadians in particular are staying away. Border crossings by Canadians were down 20% in February, according to Statistics Canada. Some cited fear that they would face more difficult border crossings, while others chose to visit other countries or not leave at all, heeding former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s call to stay in the country for their summer vacations.
But it’s not just tougher border crossings and a sense of patriotism that could be dampening foreign vacationers’ enthusiasm for visiting the U.S. A generally strong U.S. dollar also makes vacations more expensive for foreign visitors—particularly for Canadians, where the Canadian dollar is at a 20-year low value compared with the U.S. dollar.
Canadian airlines like Air Canada and Flair Airlines have already reduced seat capacity between Canada and the U.S., citing lower demand.
Not all airlines are as pessimistic when it comes to transatlantic demand. SAS has added new U.S. flights from its hub in Copenhagen to Seattle/Tacoma, and from Oslo, Norway, to New York-JFK. Air France is adding flights to Orlando from Paris, increasing flights from Paris to New York and Phoenix, Arizona, and is bumping up frequencies from Tahiti to Los Angeles.
U.S. carriers are also adding significant service to Europe. United is adding flights to Palermo, Italy; Bilbao, Spain; Madeira, Portugal; and Faro, Portugal; while Delta is adding flights to Dubrovnik, Croatia; Naples, Italy; and Dublin, Ireland. American is adding new nonstops from Chicago to Madrid and from Charlotte to Athens, among others.
With summer schedules already set, airlines could resort to discounting fares if the demand for summer flights doesn’t materialize, but airlines have also gotten better about trimming unprofitable flights closer to the departure date. When that happens, airlines offer passengers rebooking on other, often less-convenient schedules if their schedules are changed after they’ve purchased their ticket, or for significant changes, they can cancel and request a refund.
In January, the research firm Tourism Economics forecasted inbound international travel to the United States to grow 9% this year, but by February, they had already updated their outlook, anticipating a 5.1% decline instead—with a spending shortfall of $18 billion for the US tourism economy.
