How Last Week’s Mortgage Rate Rise Is Linked to the Trump Tax Bill



Key Takeaways

  • After three weeks of gradually climbing, 30-year mortgage rates jumped this past week in response to congressional debate of President Donald Trump’s proposed tax bill.
  • Rates on new 30-year fixed-rate loans are now 20 points higher than four weeks ago, sitting at a 7.12% average.
  • 15-year rates are up a milder 10 basis points since mid-April, while jumbo 30-year rates have climbed 19 points in four weeks.
  • On a new loan of $350,000 with a 30-year term, today’s rates translate into a monthly payment of $2,357. That’s now $47 more per month than in mid-April.
  • See our tables below for other loan types and amounts.

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Mortgage Rates Climb for a Fourth Week

Mortgage rates have not been spared from the market chaos unleashed by President Donald Trump’s evolving tariff policy. And now, the administration’s proposed tax bill is additionally making waves in the mortgage lending market.

Two days after President Trump’s early-April tariff announcements triggered a mortgage rate surge, which was followed by a two-week decline. But since then, they’ve resumed climbing. This past week, they took a large jump higher as the bond market reacted to the possibility that President Trump’s proposed tax bill could become law.

Experts say passing the bill could inflate the federal deficit because it would extend substantial tax cuts and boost government spending for years. As a result, investors are concerned about its potential impact on the economy, and last week’s bond markets suffered as a result. The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest mark since February, and when bond yields rise, mortgage rates typically climb as well.

Below, you can see the change in rates over the past four weeks for each new purchase loan average. We then dive deeper into 30-year, 15-year, and jumbo 30-year fixed-rate loans.

Mortgage Type Apr 25 averages May 23 averages 4-week change
30-Year Fixed 6.92% 7.12% + 0.20
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.37% 7.37% No change
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.51% 6.73% + 0.22
20-Year Fixed 6.66% 7.00% + 0.34
15-Year Fixed 6.00% 6.10% + 0.10
FHA 15-Year Fixed 6.82% 6.78% No change
10-Year Fixed 5.81% 6.16% + 0.35
7/6 ARM 7.41% 7.44% + 0.03
5/6 ARM 7.40% 7.41% + 0.01
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 6.91% 7.10% + 0.19
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.85% 6.99% + 0.14
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 7.21% 7.66% + 0.45
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 7.48% 7.45% – 0.03

30-Year Mortgage Rates Are Sitting Near a 1-Year High

After edging 3 basis points higher each of the last three weeks, rates on 30-year new purchase loans shot up 11 points last week. That takes the flagship average up to 7.12%, just barely below the 7.14% peak registered on April 11—its highest level in a year.

However, things were much better in September, when the 30-year average plunged to a two-year low of 5.89% (the cheapest Friday average being 6.03%). So far this year, the lowest weekly reading has been 6.55%.

15-Year Mortgage Rates Creep Further Into 6% Territory

Rates on 15-year new purchase loans have seen a milder climb over the last four weeks, rising just 10 basis points to an average of 6.10% on Friday. That puts the current reading more than 1.1 percentage points above the two-year low of 4.97% registered in September.

Jumbo 30-Year Rates Jump Well Above 7%

Rates on jumbo 30-year new purchase loans shot up 13 basis points last week, for a total of 19 points across four weeks. Friday’s average of 7.10% is just a slight improvement vs. the 2025 high of 7.15%. In contrast, September rates on new 30-year jumbo loans sank as far as 6.24%, with the lowest weekly average registering at 6.39%.

What’s a jumbo loan?

A jumbo mortgage is one that exceeds the maximum loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conforming loans—$806,500 for single-family homes in most parts of the U.S. in 2025, but up to $1,209,750 in certain more expensive areas.

Here’s How Much Monthly Payments Are Today

To see how much this week’s rate increases would impact monthly payments for new borrowers, our tables below lay out the principal-plus-interest payment for various loan amounts with a 30-year, 15-year, or jumbo 30-year fixed-rate new purchase mortgage.

30-Year Loan Monthly Mortgage Payments
National average rate $250,000 $350,000 $450,000 $550,000 $650,000
Fri, Apr. 25 6.92% $1,650 $2,310 $2,970 $3,630 $4,290
Fri, May 23 7.12% $1,683 $2,357 $3,030 $3,704 $4,377
4-week climb + 0.20 + $33 + $47 + $60 + $74 + $87
Monthly payment amounts shown include principal and interest only, not insurance or taxes.
15-Year Loan Monthly Mortgage Payments
National average rate $250,000 $350,000 $450,000 $550,000 $650,000
Fri, Apr. 25 6.00% $2,110 $2,953 $3,797 $4,641 $5,485
Fri, May 23 6.10% $2,123 $2,972 $3,822 $4,671 $5,520
4-week climb + 0.10 + $13 + $19 + $25 + $30 + $35
Monthly payment amounts shown include principal and interest only, not insurance or taxes.

By definition, jumbo 30-year mortgages are larger loans. So below we’ve run our calculations on loan amounts of $800,000 to $1.2 million.

Jumbo 30-Year Loan Monthly Mortgage Payments
National average rate $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000
Fri, Apr. 25 6.91% $5,274 $5,933 $6,593 $7,252 $7,911
Fri, May 23 7.10% $5,376 $6,048 $6,720 $7,392 $8,064
4-week climb + 0.19 + $102 + $115 + $127 + $140 + $153
Monthly payment amounts shown include principal and interest only, not insurance or taxes.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.

Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts. We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our
editorial policy.
  1. Federal Housing Finance Agency. “FHFA Announces Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2025.”






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