Key Takeaways
- Nike is poised to regain market share in the athletic footwear space as sales growth for Deckers Outdoor’s Hoka brand has started to slow, Jefferies analysts wrote.
- The Hoka brand’s fiscal fourth-quarter sales rose by 10% year-over-year, a much slower growth pace than its prior two quarters.
- The analysts said the slowdown is a sign of the “reinvigorated momentum of NKE’s innovation and wholesale penetration.”
Slowing sales growth at Deckers Outdoor’s (DECK) Hoka brand could help Nike (NKE) regain market share in athletic footwear, Jefferies analysts said.
After the bell Thursday, Deckers reported that Hoka sales increased by 10% year-over-year in its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter. That, Jefferies analysts noted, is down from 24% and 35%, respectively, in the previous two quarters.
That “deceleration reflects the reinvigorated momentum of [Nike’s] innovation and wholesale penetration and market share will begin to favor” Nike, Jefferies wrote. The analysts cited Nike’s brand awareness, diverse price points, and slate of upcoming partnerships—like its collaboration with Kim Kardashian’s SKIMS brand—as potential sales drivers.
Jefferies also recently said Nike stood to benefit from Dick’s Sporting Goods’ (DKS) acquisition of Foot Locker (FL), as Nike’s strong relationship with each retailer could help sales once they are combined.
Nike shares were down roughly 2% Friday afternoon. Deckers Outdoor shares sank nearly 20% after the company did not issue a fiscal 2026 outlook due to uncertainty around tariffs.
Jefferies has a “buy” rating and a $115 price target—nearly double Thursday’s closing price of $61.32—on Nike shares. The Street consensus is around $74, according to Visible Alpha.
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