German election live: voters head to polls amid fears over Ukraine security, Trump and rise of far right

Why does the German election matter?

Jon Henley

Europe correspondent

The three-way “traffic-light” coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens ruling Germany since 2021 collapsed in November under the weight of its own ideological contradictions and the country’s economic and security challenges.

The outgoing Social Democrat chancellor, Olaf Scholz, fired his liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner, over a bitter months-long budget dispute, then called a confidence vote in parliament deliberately in order to lose it – which he duly did.

Whoever becomes chancellor will have to tackle an economy beset by high energy and labour costs, stifling bureaucracy, crumbling infrastructure and an economy that has shrunk for two consecutive years for the first time in decades.

The slowdown with trade partner China has dealt a blow to German exports, a traditional strength, while the key car industry has been slow to develop attractive electric vehicles (EVs) and now faces the threat of US tariffs under Donald Trump.

Optimists say the vote could give Germany a vital shot at investment, modernisation and renewal. Pessimists say the problems are so structural and expectations so high that the middle-of-the-road coalition that will probably emerge is doomed to disappoint.

Latest German opinion polls

14-day rolling average %

CDU/CSU
SPD
Grüne
FDP
AfD
Linke

Source: Guardian moving average of recent poll data from\n wahlrecht.de,\n last updated

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Earlier this weekend, I also spoke with Dr Raphael Bossong of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for this blog to get his take on the election and ask him to guide us through the vote.

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You will hear from him more throughout the day, but I started by asking him why Europe should take note of the vote.

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Well, it’s a decisive election. I mean, they always say that, but definitely this one is really important for Germany and for Europe at the same time.

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The tasks for the next government are bigger than ever.

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Watch what he had to say:

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vote casts her vote at a polling station in Berlin.”,”caption”:”A vote casts her vote at a polling station in Berlin.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Philipp-Moritz Jenne/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Voter turnout at the ballot box by 2pm was at 52%, up from 36.5% at the same time in 2021 (+15.5pp, but take note that the 2021 election took place during the Covid-19 pandemic, so some voters opted for postal vote instead), German federal electoral authorities have just confirmed.

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Looking at the state-by-state breakdown from earlier in the day, reported by Welt, it seems like there was a particularly high turnout in the state of Thuringia (44.5% at midday, up from 24.6% in 2021), which is an AfD stronghold and where the far-right party won the state elections in September last year.

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Berlin also reported a higher turnout at noon with 33%, up from 25.4% in 2021.

“,”elementId”:”831b5153-92c8-4951-872b-08867a8f13b5″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Scholz urges German parties to exclude far right as AfD poised for state election victory”,”elementId”:”3b87151d-b226-40ae-ac36-8bd5099095c4″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/01/german-far-right-party-afd-state-election-victory-thuringia”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740321787000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”09.43 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740322973000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.02 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740322435000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”09.53 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”09.53″,”title”:”High turnout reported by 2pm”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Sun 23 Feb 2025 11.50 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67bb2e6d8f0835381101aa9c”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Opinion is divided as Germany faces what some describe as the “most important election in their lifetime”. The country is expected to shift to the right as Friedrich Merz is in pole position to become Germany’s next chancellor, while far-right party AfD could become the second most powerful party.

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So earlier today I asked voters at a polling station in central Berlin what they expected from the election and what they wanted the next chancellor to focus on.

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Europe correspondent

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There seems little doubt that, barring any major surprises, the conservative Merz will be Germany’s next chancellor. The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have been consistently and comfortably ahead in the polls on about 30%, with the Alternative für Deutschland second on 20-21%.

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There is no apparent route to power for the far-right AfD since all other parties have ruled out working with a party they consider undemocratic.

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According to the Guardian’s poll tracker, the SPD are third on about 15% and the Greens fourth on 13%. The leftwing Die Linke are predicted to clear the 5% hurdle and expected to secure around 7-8% but it looks far from certain that the “conservative-left” Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) or liberal FDP will do the same.

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Depending on whether that trio (plus the local associations of Free Voters (FW), who could do well in Bavaria) score 5% or more, or qualify via the three-seat exception, the next assembly could have four parties or eight, the most in modern history.

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That makes the distribution of seats in the new parliament very hard to predict. However, most analysts see the most likely outcome being a CDU-led coalition government including either Scholz’s Social Democrats or the Greens, or maybe both.

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Europe correspondent

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The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CDU/CSU) frontrunners, led by wealthy former asset manager Friedrich Merz, are proposing to cut taxes, tighten welfare eligibility, slash immigration, process asylum claims abroad, and boost aid to Ukraine.

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The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has endorsed the concept of “re-migration”, threatening the mass deportation of migrants. It also pledges a return to the deutschmark, military conscription, and sweeping education reforms.

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Scholz’s Social Democratic party (SPD) aims to support low-income families by cutting VAT on food and tax for low earners and raising the minimum wage. It also aims to curb immigration and proposes a €100bn infrastructure investment fund, but is more cautious on Ukraine. Scholz has refused to send long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv, defending the decision as a “prudent” anti-escalation measure.

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The Greens have announced plans for a “billionaire tax” to help poorer households through the green transition. They are also in favour of increasing the minimum wage and are pushing for incentives to speed up the switch to renewable energy.

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posters, showing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, and CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz, stand on a meadow in Nieder-Erlenbach near Frankfurt.”,”caption”:”Election posters, showing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, and CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz, stand on a meadow in Nieder-Erlenbach near Frankfurt.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Michael Probst/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.39 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740314884000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.48 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740314884000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.48 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.48″,”title”:”Who are the key players and what have they promised?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2016/09/22/Jon-Henley.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=49db88bf6fc8b042c62d52be8afd87ae”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Jon_Henley,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cf23d4c141249ac9dd9f5c331c359f12″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Sun 23 Feb 2025 11.50 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67babb568f08089227381baf”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Europe correspondent

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The three-way “traffic-light” coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens ruling Germany since 2021 collapsed in November under the weight of its own ideological contradictions and the country’s economic and security challenges.

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The outgoing Social Democrat chancellor, Olaf Scholz, fired his liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner, over a bitter months-long budget dispute, then called a confidence vote in parliament deliberately in order to lose it – which he duly did.

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Whoever becomes chancellor will have to tackle an economy beset by high energy and labour costs, stifling bureaucracy, crumbling infrastructure and an economy that has shrunk for two consecutive years for the first time in decades.

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The slowdown with trade partner China has dealt a blow to German exports, a traditional strength, while the key car industry has been slow to develop attractive electric vehicles (EVs) and now faces the threat of US tariffs under Donald Trump.

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Optimists say the vote could give Germany a vital shot at investment, modernisation and renewal. Pessimists say the problems are so structural and expectations so high that the middle-of-the-road coalition that will probably emerge is doomed to disappoint.

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chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election.”,”caption”:”German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Carsten Koall/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:true,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.39 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740312506000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.08 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740312506000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.08 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.08″,”title”:”Why does the German election matter?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2016/09/22/Jon-Henley.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=49db88bf6fc8b042c62d52be8afd87ae”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Jon_Henley,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cf23d4c141249ac9dd9f5c331c359f12″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Sun 23 Feb 2025 11.50 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67bab6bf8f086d399220521d”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Guten Tag, and good day from Berlin.

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Sixty million Germans choose their next government today, which will lead Europe’s largest economy through what will most likely be the most tumultuous era in decades.

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Voters have to choose who will be given the task of steering Germany through an existential security crisis in Europe with Ukraine and Russia, while at the same time facing unprecedented structural challenges to the country’s economic model amid a worsening geopolitical outlook abroad, most obviously characterised by a crumbling transatlantic alliance with the new US administration of Donald Trump.

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man makes soap bubbles in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.”,”caption”:”A man makes soap bubbles in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Michael Probst/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The conservative opposition chief Friedrich Merz is widely expected to score a win and get the job. But other than that, there are more questions than answers. Who will he govern with? How many parties will get into the Bundestag? Will the far-right once again see record rises in their support, and if so, what will this mean for German politics?

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The polling stations have been open since 8am local time (7am GMT) and will close at 6pm local time (5pm GMT) when we should get an exit poll and a first indication of what awaits Germany next.

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We will bring you all the key updates throughout the day, helping you to understand the context of the vote, summarising the main themes of the campaign, and bringing first-hand reports from on the ground in Berlin.

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Key events

What coalition is likely to emerge from the vote? – expert says

Let’s go back to Dr Raphael Bossong of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for his taken on his comment on what to expect after the vote.

You will not be surprised to hear that he essentially says:

It’s more complicated than ever.

Greens fighting to hold on to power

Ajit Niranjan

Environment correspondent

Germany’s Greens are fighting to hold on to power after four years in a coalition government where they have been pilloried by other parties, and during which their core issue of climate action has slipped down the political agenda.

Though the party is still far from being considered a Volkspartei – a main party whose voters span demographic groups and issues – the Greens have sought to boost their mainstream appeal with talk of beefing up security and bringing down rents and bills.

Unexpected revival of Die Linke

Deborah Cole

Berlin correspondent

As the world’s richest person meddles at will on behalf of the far right in the German election campaign, a leftist party calling for taxing billionaires out of existence has risen from the ashes in the race’s final stretch.

The far-left Linke, successor to the East German communists who built the Berlin Wall and just months ago on life support after an internal schism, has had a surprise resurgence before the 23 February poll.

Far right and far left parties are set to make gains in the German election

As hard right populists succeed across much of Europe and incumbents such as Germany’s Social Democrat (SPD) chancellor, Olaf Scholz, fail to meet the moment, many leftist voters in particular have said they feel unsure where to turn, creating an opening for the once down-and-out Linke.

Jakub Krupa

30 minutes alert.

We should get a early idea of what the results may look like at the top of the hour, when the polls close and we expect to see an exit poll.

Feeling nervous yet?

Sparkling wine is getting served at the AfD HQs…

What our German readers think about the vote?

Jedidajah Otte

Reporter

Hundreds of German readers shared with the Guardian how they felt about the chaotic political and economic situation in Europe’s largest economy.

While most people agreed Germany’s malaise was primarily to be blamed on a lack of sorely needed investment in the country’s ailing transport, energy, housing, education and health infrastructure, opinions on how such investments should be financed diverged enormously.

While scores of people expressed concern about increasingly rightwing rhetoric regarding immigration in German politics, even from Scholz himself, others welcomed this shift, with a number of people pointing to recent terrorist attacks such as the mass stabbing by a Syrian asylum seeker in the western city of Solingen last summer.

Elon Musk’s support for the AfD

Elon Musk, billionaire Tesla and SpaceX CEO, and now a senior Trump administration figure, has played a part in this campaign after repeatedly intervening in support of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland – including today.

In December, he took a stunning new public step in his support for the far-right German political party Alternative for Germany (AfD), publishing a supportive guest opinion piece for the country’s Welt am Sonntag newspaper that has prompted the commentary editor to resign in protest.

He later hosted a virtual encounter with AfD leader Alice Weidel amid growing criticism over the US billionaire’s vocal support of far-right, anti-establishment parties across Europe, and accusations he is meddling in the campaign for Germany’s election.

The almost 75-minute conversation covered everything from energy policy and education to their joint wish to slash German bureaucracy and prevent illegal immigration. Douglas Adams, Schopenhauer, the meaning of life, whether Adolf Hitler was a socialist or a far-right extremist and how to solve the Israel-Palestine conflict were also mulled over at length.

However, his more open calls for German voters to back the AfD, which federal authorities classify as a suspected extremist party, have sparked outrage and accusations of troubling interference in Europe’s top economy.

“It is indeed the case that Elon Musk is trying to influence the federal election,” said the government spokesperson Christiane Hoffmann after Musk’s X posts.

Musk has often weighed in on German politics, even calling the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, a “fool” on his social media platform X.

Last month Tesla and SpaceX boss also made supportive speech at a campaign event for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in Halle, eastern Germany.

Speaking just days before the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the German Nazi concentration camp in Auschwitz, he told attendees that Germany was too focused on past guilt and said the AfD was the best hope for the country.

Let’s see if his support helps the party’s result today.

Ashifa Kassam

Community affairs correspondent

Migration has loomed large in the lead-up to the election, cast repeatedly as a problem to be solved; from Olaf Scholz’s promise to “deport people more often and faster” to the proposals by the conservative opposition leader, Friedrich Merz, to turn away asylum seekers at Germany’s borders and revoke the citizenship of dual nationals who commit a crime.

Both have seemingly sought to keep pace with the AfD, who have peddled promises of remigration and repeatedly tied migration to crime, falsely tarring the millions of Germans who hail from around the world and live peacefully in and contribute to the country.

Ashifa Kassam

Community affairs correspondent

In the days before an election in which the far right is expected to catapult into second place in Germany’s parliament, the simultaneous rallies in 50 municipalities were billed as a show of strength by an LGBTQ+ community as people braced for what might lie ahead.

They poured on to streets across Germany by the thousands, waving rainbow flags and signs that read “Choose Love”.

Sunday’s election, however, could leave the LGBTQ+ community grappling with an intensified challenge as polls suggest support for the AfD is set to double, yielding a result that would be unprecedented in the country’s postwar history.