Final Oscar Predictions: Best Picture — Will ‘Anora’ Look Like ‘You Can’t Take It With You’ or ‘Rocky’ or Something More?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Picture commentary (Updated Feb. 26, 2025): Sean Baker’s “Anora” has been the frontrunner all season, winning the DGA, PGA, Critics Choice, and WGA awards — a combination that has only failed once (“Brokeback Mountain”). But “Conclave” has emerged as a serious challenger after its BAFTA win for best film.

With six noms, “Anora” can look like eight different previous best picture winners: “Mutiny on the Bounty” (1935, best picture only); “Midnight Cowboy” (1969, picture, director, screenplay); “Rocky” (1976, picture, director, editing); “Terms of Endearment” (1983, picture, director, actress, supporting actor, screenplay); “Birdman” (picture, director, screenplay, editing); “Nomadland” (2020, picture, director, actress, screenplay), or what I’m predicting — “You Can’t Take It With You” (1938, picture and director).

Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez,” the most-nominated non-English-language film in Oscar history, initially looked like a contender. But the controversy surrounding Karla Sofía Gascón has tanked its chances. The best hope for the film now? A win for supporting actress frontrunner Zoe Saldaña or original song (“El Mal”). If it loses both, it could join “The Turning Point” and “The Color Purple” as the most-nominated films to go home empty-handed.

The most significant question mark is “Conclave.” While Edward Berger’s Vatican-set thriller has the kind of prestige the Academy often rewards, it lacks a best director nomination—a significant historical hurdle. It would need a screenplay and editing to win an “Argo-style” victory. One interesting stat? Ralph Fiennes, nominated for best actor, has already appeared in three best picture winners. If “Conclave” wins, he’ll be the only actor to appear in four.

Will Win: “Anora” (Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker)

Could Win: “Conclave” (Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman)
Should Win: “I’m Still Here” (Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira)
Should Have Been Nominated: “Memoir of a Snail” (Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney); “Daughters” (Justin Benoliel, Laura Choi, James Cunningham, Kathryn Everett, Mindy Goldberg, Victor Kamwendo, Lisa Mazzotta); “The Wild Robot” (Jeff Hermann)

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

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