Bizarre as it might sound, Game 4 made certain that three is the magic number. Coming away with a 4-1 victory Tuesday has seen the Edmonton Oilers win three in a row while having a 3-1 series advantage in the Western Conference finals.
Suffering what is now their third straight defeat means the Dallas Stars are a loss away from their season ending while being the first team to advance to three consecutive conference finals without reaching the Stanley Cup since the NHL moved to the current format back in 1994.
Ryan S. Clark and Greg Wyshynski take a look back at what happened in Game 4, what players could make an impact in what might be a defining Game 5 for both franchises while also asking what major questions face the Oilers and Stars ahead of Thursday.
Warning: The following commentary is going to sound like a broken record like when it comes to the Edmonton Oilers. Reader discretion is advised.
Now that we’ve gone through the fine print, the Oilers did in Game 4 what they have since Kris Knoblauch arrived in November 2023. They found a way to adjust. Again. Giving up 16 first-period shots led to the Oilers making the necessary adjustments that saw that figure decline to nine shots in the second before going more than 11 minutes in the third until the Stars got a second shot on goal. They allowed two high-danger chances in 5-on-5 play over the final two periods while still retaining their physical edge without Zach Hyman, who was ruled out following a first-period hit with Mason Marchment.
In addition to those adjustments, the Oilers also received contributions from everyone. Leon Draisaitl scored the opener with Corey Perry scoring the eventual game-winner while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was at the controls with two assists. Then came the empty-net goals from Kasperi Kapanen and Adam Henrique to close out the game. Similar to what they did in Game 3, the Oilers found the balance that saw them rely on Stuart Skinner to make the needed save while providing him with stronger support throughout the course of the game. — Ryan S. Clark
First the good news: The Dallas Stars had a great first period that saw them put 16 shots on goal, earn 74% of the shot attempts and 12 more scoring chances than the Oilers. Now the bad news: It didn’t lead to the Stars scoring the first goal of the game, something they’ve yet to do this series, while Draisaitl’s power-play goal put them in a 1-0 hole after 20 minutes. Key phrase: “Power play.” The Oilers were 2-for-3 against a penalty kill unit that’s given up at least one goal on the man advantage in every game of the series.
That’s all they needed against a Dallas offense that Edmonton defended expertly in front of Skinner. How expertly? The Dallas stars went roughly 30 minutes between the second and third periods without a high-danger shot attempt. Dallas had four shots on goal in the third period. With their season on the line! The suppression of the Dallas offense — partially by the Oilers and Skinner, partially because the Stars have so many passengers this series — over the last two periods is the reason they’re facing elimination after Game 4. — Greg Wyshynski
Three Stars of Game 4
With a goal and an assist, Perry became the first forward with 15 minutes of time on ice and two points at age 40-or-older in the playoffs since Jaromir Jagr in 2013 for the Bruins against the Blackhawks in the Stanley Cup Final.
Another win with one or less goals scored against this postseason. Skinner made 28 of 29 saves with the lone goal being a perfect Jason Robertson top shelf snipe on the power play.
Mark Messier on The Point called him perhaps the best special teams player (penalty kill and power play) in the NHL and it showed in Game 4 especially with the man advantage, where he had two primary assists propelling the Oilers to a commanding 3-1 series lead. — Arda Öcal
0:42
Leon Draisaitl opens up scoring for Oilers
Leon Draisaitl smacks a one-timer into the net on the power play as the Oilers grab a 1-0 lead.
Players to watch in Game 5
There’s still the possibility that the Oilers could have Hyman for Game 5. If not, then, it’s going to lead to Knoblauch making an adjustment to replace what’s been the Oilers’ most physical player this postseason. Filling Hyman’s void could be a collective effort as it was in Game 4 given that Trent Frederic, Evander Kane, Vasily Podkolzin and Kapanen each finished with more than five hits. Perry, who also has that physical aspect to his game, has provided the Oilers with a winger who can play throughout the lineup. That was even more evident in Game 4 with his two-point performance that saw his sixth goal of the playoffs tie Jean Beliveau for the most by a player in their age-39 season. Whether it be on the fourth line or next to Connor McDavid and Draisaitl to give the Oilers a forward combination that features Hart Trophy winners, a luxury no other team has this postseason. — Clark
Dallas GM Jim Nill said it himself after acquiring Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes: “Mikko’s experience in the postseason is an invaluable asset to our team as we work toward the goal of winning a Stanley Cup.”
Welp. The Stars are one more loss away from being shaken awake from their Stanley Cup dream in the conference final for a third straight season. When thinking about reasons “it’ll be different this time,” Rantanen’s name was top of the list. Especially after his 18-point explosion over the course of seven games between the end of the Colorado series and the start of the Winnipeg series.
Rantanen doesn’t have a goal since Game 3 against the Jets. He has two secondary assists in his last six playoff games. The “invaluable asset” hasn’t exactly become a liability. He’s generating shots. He’s trying. But he’s not been a difference-maker in the same way the top Edmonton players have. Game 5 could be a legacy game for Rantanen or more of the same for the Dallas. — Wyshynski
Big questions for Game 5
Will it be too close for comfort or closing time for the Oilers in Game 5?
Fully understanding what this iteration of the Oilers has done this postseason can be viewed in a number of ways. Doing that, however, means looking back at how they finished last season in the Stanley Cup final. They know firsthand what it means to let an opponent find even a little bit of breathing room only to see them gain life. But they also know what it’s like to have that new proverbial life and fail to make the most of that advantage. Fast forward to this postseason. The second they got an opening against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round, they took care of business. The moment the Vegas Golden Knights thought they had something, the Oilers kept them from scoring for the rest of the postseason. So what are they about to do to the Stars in Game 5? And will it be enough to send the Oilers back to the Stanley Cup final for a second straight season? — Clark
Is it as simple as scoring the first goal?
We like to get really brainy when it comes to hockey analysis. Puck possession, expected goals, high-danger chances and the rest of the fancy stats. We breakdown plays down to the pixel to explain them. What we don’t like to do is acknowledge the simplicity of playoff hockey. Because a concept like “first goal wins” is just so normie and uncomplicated. Even if it might be true.
The Carolina Hurricanes scored the first goal in Game 4, facing elimination. They exhaled, got to their game and now the series has swung back to Raleigh, with Carolina moving to 6-0 when they score first. Dallas is 3-0 in the postseason when scoring first — and perhaps the fact that it’s only happened three times is one reason why they’ve played more games (17) than anyone else in the tournament.
Scoring first doesn’t promise you anything. After all, Dallas only had a .674 winning percentage when scoring first in the regular season, 17th in the NHL. But getting a goal on the board against the Oilers would calm things down. It would allow the Stars to build on their game rather than frantically dig out of a hole. Most importantly, it could help plant a little doubt in the minds of the Oilers. Giving them a little concern. Because right now, they’re the most unbothered team in the conference finals — cool, confident and one win away from another Stanley Cup Finals appearances unless the Stars flip the script fast. Scoring first, as simple as it sounds, would be one way to attempt to do that. — Wyshynski
