Drug Tariffs Could Raise Cancer Treatment Cost By $10,000, Analysis Finds

President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could raise the cost of some cancer treatments by as much as $10,000, while also raising prices for cheaper everyday drugs, a new analysis has found.

Diederik Stadig, an economist at ING Bank, found that the cost of certain cancer treatments could go up by $8,000 to $10,000 for a 24-week course under Trump’s proposed tariffs. The cost of generic drugs would likely rise to 94 cents a pill on average, up from 82 cents. Consumers would pay the increased costs or higher prices would eventually be passed to them through higher premiums on health insurance.

“If this 25% tariff went into place, it would eventually make health insurance more expensive,” Stadig said.

Various Trump tariff proposals could push up drug prices, Stadig said. Trump has proposed a 25% tariff against the European Union, a major drug manufacturer; a 25% tariff against countries that import oil from Venezuela, which would include India, a major drug exporter; and a 25% tariff against all imported pharmaceutical products.

“The initial impact on both patients and the U.S. health care system could be very significant,” Stadig said.

How Pharmaceutical Companies React Matters

Drugs are among many products whose prices could soar under the tariff campaign Trump has announced or promised in recent weeks as he makes sweeping changes to U.S. trade policy.

Following the shock of higher prices at the outset, the longer-term effects are harder to predict. Some companies might choose to relocate more manufacturing to the U.S. to get around the tariffs—the intended effect—but Stadig noted that building a new drug factory can cost billions of dollars and take up to 10 years. Companies may be reluctant to make such a commitment given the uncertainty of how long the tariffs will stay in place, let alone what will happen with them once Trump’s term in office ends, he wrote.

Some of the more expensive, specialized drugs could move production to the U.S. relatively quickly. However, those prices could be permanently higher due to labor costs and other expenses in the U.S. compared to India. Stadig predicted that makers of cheap generics would likely choose to remain in India and pay the tariffs.