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A document prepared for the Kremlin by a Moscow-based think tank states that “a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine war cannot happen before 2026,” according to The Washington Post.
The document, drawn up in February, outlines the Russian plan to weaken the U.S. position on the Ukraine crisis by boosting tensions between the Trump White House and other nations as Russia moves ahead with its plans to pick apart the country.
The document, obtained by a European intelligence agency and reviewed by The Post, argues that the current Ukrainian government needs to be fully dismantled. “The current Kyiv regime cannot be changed from inside the country. Its complete dismantling is needed,” the report states.
The think tank behind the document has close connections to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), which is in charge of Russian operations in the war-torn country, and pushes extreme demands for a peace deal, stating that President Donald Trump’s plan to reach a peace agreement within 100 days is “impossible.”
The plan also rejects any notion that peacekeepers be allowed in Ukraine, as several European leaders have suggested. In addition, the document insists on recognition of Russian sovereignty over the territory it has seized in Ukraine.
The document calls for a buffer zone in northeast Ukraine on the border with the Russian regions of Bryansk and Belgorod, in addition to a demilitarized zone in southern Ukraine close to Crimea, the peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.
Following talks in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine has endorsed a proposal from the U.S. for a 30-day ceasefire.
But analysts told The Post that Russia still has ways it can prolong the fighting, and that the path to a peace deal remains fraught with difficulty.
Council on Foreign Relations fellow Thomas Graham, who was senior Russia director at the National Security Council during George W. Bush’s administration, said Russia is “not interested in an early resolution of the Ukraine crisis.”
He noted: “They consistently talk about the root causes, which … are about the domestic politics in Ukraine, and even more important than that, the European security architecture, which would be the role of NATO. A simple ceasefire which doesn’t take that into account is of no interest to Russia. And Trump doesn’t appear to understand.”
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the newspaper that the Russian government “was not aware of such recommendations” outlined in the document.
He said they were “extremely contradictory,” and added: “We are working with more-considered options.”
The document was put together ahead of talks on February 18 between Russia and the U.S. in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
A Russian academic with connections to top Russian diplomats told The Post that the recommendations in the document are an amalgamation of the consensus in the Russian capital. He noted that it’s unclear how much the Kremlin takes into account documents prepared for it.
The document states that without official recognition of the territories seized by Russia, it’s likely that the fighting would begin again — “for example after the next change of administration in the U.S.”
