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There is a lot of uncertainty in polling. Despite the individual polls results, Labor has yet to show a clear lead in Guardian Australia’s modelling. The model averages the polls over the time they are in the field and factors in sample sizes, previous results and the “house effects” (bias towards a party) of each pollster.
There is a lot of uncertainty in polling. Despite the individual polls results, Labor has yet to show a clear lead in Guardian Australia’s modelling. The model averages the polls over the time they are in the field and factors in sample sizes, previous results and the “house effects” (bias towards a party) of each pollster.
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Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the best overnight stories and then Krishani Dhanji will be your guide.
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Stock markets in Europe and the US have seen heavy losses after yesterday’s announcement by Donald Trump of tariffs on US trading partners. Anthony Albanese’s government is still considering its response but has unveiled $1bn in loans to help Australian exporters after the tariff hit. We have more coming up.
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The US president’s economic warfare has made him politically toxic with Australian voters. Although the situation is fraught with difficulties for Albanese – will it crash our economy? – there could be political benefits because Peter Dutton has in the past tried to align himself with Trumpist themes such as being “strong” on defence and immigration. Our political writers have their analysis, and in the blog in a minute we’ll look at a new poll showing that Dutton is losing popularity with voters.
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Key events
ANZ triples rate cut expectations for 2025 and ‘wouldn’t rule out’ a major cut next month
Luca Ittimani
ANZ has joined the other three major banks to predict an interest rate cut in May as markets shudder in the wake of US president Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.
Until Thursday, the bank had maintained the RBA would deliver only one more rate cut this year, and probably not until August. It now expects a cut at each of the next three meetings of the RBA board. ANZ economists wrote:
In the wake of yesterday’s US tariff announcements and given the likely impacts on global growth and those already evident in market sentiment, we now expect the RBA to ease in May, July and August (25bp at each meeting). That would see the cash rate at 3.35% come August.
Tariffs had already seen global markets lose confidence and worsened forecasts for international economic activity, which would affect Australian households and businesses, ANZ’s forecasters flagged.
ANZ warned the RBA could get ‘more aggressive” and deliver a two-for-one cut, depending on how low confidence and forecasts fall”
We would not rule out a 50bp cut in May, if sentiment sours and the global growth outlook deteriorates sufficiently.
The RBA board on Tuesday held its key interest rate at 4.1% but said it was “well placed to respond” to tariffs and other global events, while the governor, Michele Bullock, said policymakers had “room to move”.
Other Australian major banks had already expected a cut at the next meeting on 20 May plus another two by the end of the year. But that was before Trump’s tariff announcement and ANZ is now expecting the three cuts to arrive earlier than any of them.
Australian shares open down 1.9% after Trump tariffs bruise global markets
Patrick Commins
The S&P/ASX 200 sharemarket index has dropped 1.9% in early trade to 7707 points and is still falling after a turbulent night on global sharemarkets.
The early morning sell-off comes after Wall St suffered its worst day since Covid, dropping nearly 5% after Trump’s promise to use sweeping new tariffs to “make America wealthy again” erased $US2.5tn (A$3.95tn) from the value of the S&P 500 index. Nike stock plunged by 14%.
Investors are rattled that the dawn of the most protectionist era for the US in over a century will drive the world’s largest economy into recession even as it sends consumer prices higher.
JP Morgan overnight lifted its estimate of the chances of a US recession to 60% if the tariffs as announced remain – an open question as attention turns to whether Trump will wind back some of the import taxes if he can strike “deals” with other countries.
Reporters ask Dutton for further clarity on whether he’ll repeal the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard set up under the Albanese government.
The Coalition had voted against the policy, and has promised to repeal the “ute tax” as they call it.
We won’t proceed, as I say, with the ute tax and the car tax that the Prime Minister doesn’t want to talk anything about, but that is going to be felt in a hip-pocket hit by this Prime Minister.
But it’s understood the Coalition wouldn’t scrap the standards altogether, just remove the penalties for car companies if they fail to meet the standards.
The Coalition claims scrapping the penalties would save vehicle owners money.
Dutton backs Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie for frontbench after reports of internal dissent
Following reports this morning that there’s a tussle between the Nationals for who will remain on the frontbench, Dutton backs in Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie.
Nine papers report McKenzie, who is at the press conference with Dutton, is on the chopping block, as the junior Coalition partner could lose some of its frontbench numbers after the next election.
How can you dump somebody like a Senator McKenzie, [she] was a great minister in government and will be a great minister in the next Coalition government as well. But … all of that is for another day.
Under the Coalition agreement, the parties are awarded cabinet positions based on the proportion of MPs they each have elected to parliament. The Nationals are currently overrepresented in the shadow cabinet.
PM tells students ‘in Australia, you can be anything you want to be if you study hard and work hard’
Anthony Albanese has told pupils at Cabramatta Public School to study hard and be determined, saying in Australia young people can achieve anything they dream of.
The Prime Minister met pupils from grades 5 and 6 on Friday morning, and was asked his message for children around the country.
Make the most of while you’re at school, enjoy yourself. But in this country, you can be anything you want to be. So study hard, create an opportunity for yourselves.
All your parents will want more for you than what they had. That’s the Australian way.
When I was your age, there was just me and my mum, and we lived in a council house in Camperdown, in the inner the west, and no one would have believed that I could be the prime minister.
But in Australia, you can be anything you want to be, if you study hard and work hard.
He praised the school’s teachers and paid tribute to the education minister, Jason Clare, and Labor’s candidate for the seat of Fowler, Tu Le.
He asked if there were any South Sydney Rabbitohs supporters in the class. Two pupils somewhat reluctantly raised their hands.
Dutton says WA mining makes ‘enormous contribution’ to Australia as he denies cooling relationship with Gina Rinehart
Is Peter Dutton’s relationship with mining magnate Gina Rinehart cooling?
Dutton is asked about reports that it is which he denies, saying he has respect for Rinehart and that the WA mining sector makes an “enormous contribution” to Australia.
We’ll have points of difference with many people, but that doesn’t mean it impacts your friendship or your relationship with different business people. So that’s the best response I can give you.
The Guardian’s Sarah Martin is doing an excellent investigation on Rinehart, which you can read about here:
Dutton laughs off request to release modelling for gas plan costing: ‘Just be patient’
Peter Dutton is still refusing to release his party’s modelling for the cost impact of its gas plan.
Again he laughs off a reporter’s question saying “it’s almost here” and that “anticipation is building up”.
Just be patient. Be patient. And the anticipation is building up. The message is that … our policy, our energy policy, will over the long run be much cheaper than Labor’s. That’s obvious …
We want to bring the cost of everything down which we can do if we have a gas policy which is for Australians … you’ll hear more of that shortly.
Asked as well why it’s taken Dutton so long to host a press conference at a petrol station after the fuel excise announcement, Dutton says he’s been speaking about the policy from budget night and says it’s a “game-changer”.
Dutton pins blame for illegal tabacco on CFMEU and bikie gangs
A bit of a growing conundrum for the budget is the decreasing tobacco excise due to a burgeoning black market.
How would the Liberals deal with it?
Dutton says smoking rates should continue to be reduced, but pins the blame on the militant construction union, the CFMEU, which is currently under administration, and promises to outlaw bikie gangs.
We wouldn’t allow the bikies who are in lock-step with the CFMEU to continue to run the illegal illicit tobacco market. We would clamp down and we would make sure that as we did in government, the outlaw motorcycle gangs know that they don’t have a place in our society.
Dutton claims Albanese ‘missed every’ opportunity to bargain with Trump over tariffs
Onto Trump and tariffs, Dutton says there are opportunities and Albanese has “missed every one”.
Dutton says there’s more opportunity in the relationship and the defence partnership. He mentions Aukus pillar two and the ability to purchase more from the US:
There’s opportunity there for us to purchase more from our allies including the United States, and for them to purchase more from us… That’s why I think there’s a mutual interest to be found in the discussion with the United States …
I made the point yesterday about the surface fleet. When you are looking at what the Japanese are doing with the Americans, they’re able to provide sustainment of their fleet because the Americans can’t keep up with … their service fleet servicing.
Dutton’s argument that the government has missed opportunities has been disputed by Labor, who say that have had ongoing discussions with the administration and tried to make a deal – including on critical minerals.
Dutton says fuel excise cut is part of what he offers small businesses
On to questions. Dutton is asked about his concession yesterday that the Liberals wouldn’t repeal the “same job same pay” legislation that has been introduced under Labor.
He’s asked if he’s disappointing businesses and moving away from more traditional Liberal values. Dutton says “we’re the party of making sure we can manage the economy effectively”:
I want to make sure that small businesses and bigger businesses but pensioners and families as well can get a 25 cent a litre cut in the fuel price that they pay at the bowser every time they fuel up. And that’s what we’re offering at this election.
Dutton continues to cast election as a competition over the economy
Dutton is standing up with Bridget McKenzie and the shadow minister for Western Sydney, Melissa McIntosh.
Dutton’s focused on the cost of living in this area and again pinning the election as a choice on who can “better manage our economy”.
It’s hard to find an extra 30% for your grocery bills under Anthony Albanese, it’s harder to find 34% more for your gas which is the cost it’s gone up by under Anthony Albanese. Electricity is up by 32%. Rents are obviously up by almost 20%. It’s a really tough time for Australians.
After a visit to a petrol station, Dutton’s plugging the Coalition’s proposal to cut the fuel excise.
Josh Butler
Scramble as Dutton moves to pay for petrol – but forgets his wallet
Dutton is meeting workers and customers at a petrol station in Parramatta. He helps a man filling up a Nissan Navara ute, talking up the Coalition’s plan to halve the fuel excise.
The man puts about 40 litres into his tank. Regular unleaded fuel at this station is 171.9 cents per litre. Under Dutton’s policy the man would have saved about $2.
The Liberal leader heads into the shop to pay for the man’s petrol …. but there’s an awkward moment where Dutton doesn’t have his wallet on him, and a scramble as his staff call back to their car “where’s the bosses’ phone?”
The phone is retrieved, and Dutton shells out $68 for the petrol bill.
We’re about to hold a press conference.
Jason Clare says Dutton ‘pretending he’s tough’ over US tariffs
Jason Clare ripped into Peter Dutton’s claims that he could have done better on the tariffs this morning.
Clare was alongside deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley on a panel on Sunrise.
Clare says Dutton is “pretending he’s tough” but would “more likely write a book on the ‘Art of the Kneel’.
We’ve all got mates who are gibbers, saying I could’ve done a better job, I could’ve done something different. But they’re not running to be the prime minister of Australia …
We’re not going to bend the knee. We’re not going to bend the knee to the States.
Clare points out that no country – not Japan nor the UK whose leaders visited the US – were able to get out of the tariffs.
Meanwhile, Ley says the tariffs are a “real blow” to exporters and that, “there has been a clear failure of leadership here. Anthony Albanese has not done everything that he could possibly do”.
Josh Butler
Dutton visits Parramatta petrol station
Peter Dutton is in the Sydney seat of Parramatta this morning, visiting a petrol station for the first time in his campaign so far.
It’s surprising it’s taken so long for us to visit one of these, considering that his central cost of living policy is a halving of the fuel excise for car owners.
He is here with the local candidate, Katie Mullens. Labor holds this seat on a 4% margin.
We will do a press conference here before Dutton goes to a community forum in Western Sydney.
Dan Jervis-Bardy
PM and Labor team drop in on Cabramatta public school
After a few local radio spots, Anthony Albanese is starting his campaigning on Friday with a visit to Cabramatta public school in the electorate of Fowler.
Independent Dai Le holds Fowler on a 1.8% margin after her 2022 defeat of former Labor frontbencher Kristina Keneally, who was parachuted into the western Sydney seat from the northern beaches.
Cabramatta public school just happens to be where the now education minister, Jason Clare, studied many moons ago.
Albanese, Clare and Labor’s candidate for Fowler, Tu Le, will meet with the education minister’s former grade one teacher, Cathy Fry.
