The January global surface temperature was 2.39°F (1.33°C) above the 20th-century average of 53.6°F (12.0°C) and 0.05°F (0.03°C) above the previous record set last year, making last month the warmest January on record. According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a 7% chance that 2025 will rank as the warmest year on record.
The new January global record is particularly notable for having occurred during a La Niña episode, the cold phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Global temperatures tend to be cooler during periods of ENSO-neutral conditions and even cooler during La Niña. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s January 9 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, La Niña conditions emerged in December 2024 and are expected to persist through February–April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March–May 2025 (60% chance).
