Anti-Houthi factions in Yemen could be vying for US support to attack the movement’s territory, analysts and experts told Al Jazeera, following intensified air strikes on Houthi targets by the United States.
The war in Yemen has largely been frozen for the last three years. Still, groups aligned with the Yemeni government have started signalling that they could launch operations against areas controlled by the pro-Iranian Houthis, including the crucial port of Hodeidah.
A similar campaign on Hodeidah, a critical entry point for food and goods on the Red Sea coast, seemed imminent in 2018, only to be aborted after intervention from the United Nations and the international community, who feared a humanitarian disaster in Yemen.
But experts and analysts expressed doubt that an attack by anti-Houthi groups on their domestic rival would be successful, despite some likening it to the offensive that unseated another Iran ally, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in late 2024.
“Pro-ROYG [Republic of Yemen Government] voices have been asserting that ground operations against the Houthis – in Hodeidah and potentially elsewhere – are imminent,” Hannah Porter, an independent Yemen analyst, told Al Jazeera.
“My impression so far is that these comments are just meant to garner external support from the US or Saudi [Arabia] for a takeover of Hodeidah.”
Vying for US support
The Houthis, or Ansar Allah as they are officially known, marched into and took over the Yemeni capital Sanaa in 2014. Soon after, a Saudi Arabian-led coalition intervened on behalf of Yemen’s internationally recognised government to fight the Houthis.
Anti-Houthi forces achieved some success in the early years of the war, but the failed Hodeidah campaign seemed to slow their momentum, and the Houthis have largely been on top militarily since then.
Saudi Arabia announced in March 2022 that it would stop hostilities in Yemen, and a UN-brokered truce stopped much of the fighting the following month.
By then, the Houthis still controlled Sanaa and much of northwest Yemen, while various anti-Houthi groups held the key port city of Aden and much of southern and eastern Yemen.
The Yemeni government has undergone major changes in the past few years, with President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi suddenly stepping down in 2022 and handing over power to an eight-member Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which has, so far, proven ineffective.
PLC Prime Minister Ahmed Awad Bin Mubarak resigned on Sunday, claiming to have been blocked from fulfilling his duties, as reports circulated of conflicts between him and President Rashad al-Alimi and accusations of mission creep.
The PLC includes members who have previously fought against the Yemeni government. They include Aydarous al-Zubaidi, the head of the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), and Tareq Saleh, nephew of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a one-time ally of the Houthis.
But Houthi attacks on what they claim are Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea, as well as attacks on Israel itself, have led to a bombing campaign against Yemen, and some anti-Houthi forces now see an opening.
“We’ve been seeing various anti-Houthi factions lobbying for US support since the start of the Gaza crisis,” Nick Brumfield, a Yemen expert, told Al Jazeera.
“Both the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council have competitively sought to present themselves as the solution to the US’s need for a partner on the ground against the Houthis in Yemen.”
Plan versus reality
The Yemeni government has long emphasised that its ultimate goal is the defeat of the Houthis and an end to the group’s “coup” against the Yemeni state.
In early April, President al-Alimi spoke of the importance of national unity “to topple the coup”, adding that the “decisive hour” of the “battle for liberation” was drawing near.
Al-Alimi has not given any indication of when that battle against the Houthis would be, but forces under the umbrella of the Yemeni government may see the intensification of US air strikes under President Donald Trump’s administration.
The US claims the strikes targeted Houthi leaders and have significantly degraded Houthi capabilities. Houthi authorities say that at least 123 Yemenis have been killed in the strikes since they intensified in mid-March, many of them civilians.
Reporting from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Bloomberg has claimed that discussions for an anti-Houthi ground operation, backed by the US, are under way.
The WSJ specifically mentioned that the United Arab Emirates had raised the plan with the US, but the UAE has denied any involvement, with Assistant Minister for Political Affairs Lana Nusseibeh calling them “wild unsubstantiated stories” on April 17.
The UAE officially withdrew its military forces from Yemen in 2019.
Tareq Saleh has been mentioned in news reports as a likely figure leading any anti-Houthi campaign on the Red Sea coast.
But, experts say, there has thus far been no noticeable mobilisation on the ground by anti-Houthi Yemeni armed groups.
“The PLC has been speaking about liberating Sanaa and such,” Raiman Al-Hamdani, a Yemen researcher with ARK, an international development company, told Al Jazeera.
“As far as I know, there has been little mobilisation towards this end. Whether they can is a very different story, especially with Saudi Arabia and the UAE no longer wanting to engage in war with the Houthis.”
After years of fighting, the Saudis and Houthis entered into ceasefire discussions in 2022, leaving anti-Houthi groups – including the Yemeni government – uncertain over their future and the Houthis further entrenched in power.
Al Jazeera reached out to the Yemeni government for comment on this story but received no response before publication.
Comfortable in the status quo
An advance on Sanaa, high up in the Yemeni mountains and closer to the Houthi heartland in Yemen’s far north, would be difficult for Yemeni government forces, and would involve a massive turnaround in fortunes, as well as turning Yemen’s most powerful tribes, many of whom currently back the Houthis.
The main target of any US-backed operation, however, would likely be Hodeidah, which lies on a coastal plain and whose population is less supportive of the Houthis. Losing Hodeidah, as well as other areas of the Red Sea coast, would still represent a significant loss for the Houthis and limit their ability to attack shipping on the vital sea route.
That would line up with the primary goal of the US to curtail the ability of the Houthis to attack regionally, even if the group were still able to launch missiles further afield.
But any effort to take Hodeidah would still likely require a fierce campaign, and thus far, no force – including the US – appears to be willing to fully back anti-Houthi forces militarily.
That is problematic for the anti-Houthi forces and potentially a non-starter, considering the Yemeni government’s inability to defeat the Houthis even when it had heavy military support from the Saudi-led coalition earlier in the war.
“The Houthis will throw all their weight behind defending Hodeidah,” Porter said. “Their port access is critical to their survival.”
She added that the Houthis were likely in a better military position to defend Hodeidah than any group attempting to advance on it.
“Honestly, I think the Republic of Yemen Government and the Presidential Leadership Council are not very invested in shifting the status quo,” Porter said.
“If there was a viable opportunity to take Hodeidah Port, then they would seize on that, but I don’t think they’ll have the support they need.”
