While Hong Kong’s economy has rebounded since lifting severe Covid-era travel restrictions at the end of 2022, the city has still not yet fully recovered. Last year, the city posted a moderate GDP growth of 2.6 percent, with this year’s expected to be about the same. But how that translates to the art market at Art Basel Hong Kong this month is unclear.
All last year, there was talk, both during Hong Kong Art Week and after, that China had quietly slipped into a recession due to an ongoing crisis in the country’s property market and a slowing economy. Last July, Tokyo-based investment bank Nomura said that consumer confidence in China plummeted and nearly hit an all-time historic low. In the art market, the top auction houses in Hong Kong reported lower sales in 2024 and galleries in China told ARTnews last June that “the days of quick sales and waiting lists are waning.”
China has since taken measures to boost the economy. Earlier in March, the country announced an economic plan to “vigorously boost consumption” and to stabilize the stock market, among other measures. Those measures are likely a response to economic analysis showing that China is in a period of deflation, with housing prices dropping in both large and medium cities and unemployment having risen to 5.1 percent.
While Hong Kong’s unemployment rate has hovered for years around a more encouraging 3 percent, the city is far more sensitive to external shocks and global headwinds than mainland China. Because the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to US currency, its banks lend at similarly high rates as the US Federal Reserve, which has made investors prudent in both locales. Meanwhile, US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and larger US-China trade tensions have a direct negative impact on the Hong Kong economy.
The city’s once red-hot real estate market has recorded a cumulative decline in prices of 27 percent over three years. Given how much Hong Kongers and mainland Chinese bet their money on the city’s real estate market, that kind of depreciation will likely show up in other sectors that the wealthy invest. Namely, the art market, where economic uncertainty will hang over Art Basel Hong Kong when it opens to VIPs on Wednesday, at least until dealers start announcing seven-figure sales.
“Generally speaking, confidence is the key word,” Hong Kong–based art adviser Alexandre Errera told ARTnews. “Right now, it is very shaky, but I really think that the art market has proven that when there is a crisis, it is capable of being very resilient.” Errera added that even with increased volatility throughout the art market, Chinese and Hong Kong collectors “remain some of the major buyers in the art market.”
Patricia Crockett, a senior director at David Zwirner in Hong Kong, told ARTnews that the city has not been immune to “the slowdown in the global economy and uncertain political shifts around the world.” At the same time, she added, “we have observed Hong Kong’s local collectors actually grow their acquisitions and support for the city’s art scene in the past year.”
“Lee Mingwei: Guernica in Sand” large-scale installation is on show at M+ Museum on March 13. Taiwanese-born American contemporary visual artist Lee Mingwei recreates Pablo Picassos iconic masterpiece Guernica on a massive scale with sand.
VCG via Getty Images
Leaving aside ongoing global tensions and macro-economic concerns for a moment, Hong Kong has changed considerably in recent years. The city has consolidated its role as a major art world capital with the addition of major institutional players like the M+ museum (opened in 2021) and Tai Kwun Contemporary arts complex (opened in 2018), both of which are part of newly developed cultural districts. And last month, M+ formalized a collaboration agreement with New York’s Museum of Modern Art that could soon see them share shows, research, and donor development resources.
“It has been impressive to see Hong Kong’s museums present more sophisticated and ambitious exhibitions,” Crockett said, pointing to M+’s upcoming show “Picasso for Asia—A Conversation” and the Hong Kong Museum of Art’s ongoing exhibition of works by Cézanne and Renoir, in collaboration with the Musée de l’Orangerie and the Musée d’Orsay in Paris.
In addition, a wave of buzzy local galleries and arts nonprofits opened during the Covid years, as locals looked inward for culture. All three major auction houses have opened new headquarters in the city; major Western galleries too have invested in swanky new spaces in the city. Last year, Hauser & Wirth opened a 10,000-square-foot, street-level gallery space.
At White Cube Hong Kong, director Faina Derman noted that the Asian art market has been buoyed by the rise in Southeast Asian collectors, specifically pointing to an increasing number of museums being developed in the region. Zwirner’s Crockett similarly noted an increase in collectors from Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand over the last year.
“We expect to see many of them show up this March,” Crockett said.
(Earlier this month, Thailand’s highly-anticipated Dib Bangkok museum—based on the collection of late businessman Petch Osathanugrah—announced a December 2025 opening date.)
Still, it appears that Hong Kong has not been immune to the increased cautiousness seen among collectors across the art market.
“Over the past year, we’ve observed collectors in the region becoming more selective in their acquisition,” Derman said. “At higher price points, there is a clear emphasis on blue-chip artworks, as well as pieces with proven resale value.”
The “Pumpkin” sculpture by Japanese artist Yayoi Kusama is on display ahead of the Modern and Contemporary Auctions at Sotheby’s Hong Kong Maison on March 20.
China News Service via Getty Images
That echoes trends seen in the wider art market. Asian collectors’ cautiousness has mostly been reflected in the ultra-contemporary category and primarily with “young Western artists,” according to Errera, the art adviser. “New collectors are also entering the market,” he said. “But we do see a shift from highly speculative to more blue-chips buys.”
Francis Belin, president of Christie’s Asia Pacific, told ARTnews that the auction house has continued to see Asian collectors stay active throughout the last year, whether at sales in Hong Kong or at its other locations. “We saw a strong pick up from Asia in the second half of the year, with collectors in the region contributing a substantial 30 percent of the spend at Christie’s global auctions, which is above the ranges we have seen historically,” he said.
Last September, Christie’s inaugurated its Zaha Hadid Architects–designed headquarters at The Henderson building with a round of sales, the first step as it moves from its traditional two main sale seasons per year to a year-round calendar. In addition, the new building will allow the house to host a full program of exhibitions and events, which it hopes will help it deepen its relationship with the city and further develop its arts ecosystem.
“We are now in the strongest possible position to continue driving the art market in Hong Kong and the region forward,” Belin said.
As important as Art Basel Hong Kong and the concomitant Hong Kong Art Week continue to be for both the region and the art market, they occur within an arts calendar that is far more active year-round in Asia. In addition to year-round sales and events Phillips, Christie’s, and Sotheby’s, there is an increased number of biennales, important art fairs in Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore, and Taipei, and thriving gallery scenes across Asian capital cities. It has left many in Hong Kong’s scene optimistic, even if there is an economic downturn lurking.
