The Federal Reserve’s Two-Day Policy Meeting Started Tuesday—Here’s What You Need to Know

The March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting started Tuesday against a background of uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting group is discussing progress on its fight against inflation and whether to make any monetary policy changes. The group is scheduled to release a statement with their decisions at the close of their meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern Time.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will then provide more details and answer questions at a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

Here’s what you need to know about their discussions.

The FOMC is Unlikely to Cut Interest Rates

The Fed is expected to keep its influential federal funds rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the second meeting in a row.

Traders see only a 1% chance that the Fed will cut its interest rate to boost the economy, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

Fed officials have repeatedly said they are taking a “wait-and-see” approach as some of President Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies have stoked uncertainty, undermined confidence among business leaders and consumers, sent stocks tumbling, and raised fears of a possible economic downturn.

Members Will Release Economic Predictions, But Don’t Expect a Clear Picture

The March meeting is scheduled to include a Summary of Economic Projections, which is released four times a year during every other FOMC meeting.

The economic projections will include the closely watched “dot plot,” which gives a snapshot of where the 19 committee members project the future fed funds rate. Economists typically find the median of the projection to give an idea of the federal fund rate’s path, though this time, it may be murkier than in the past.

“We expect the median rate projections (“dots”) to remain unchanged for 2025-27. With market sentiment on edge and little intrigue around the May meeting, the Fed can afford to be patient about pushing back on cut pricing,” analysts at Nomura wrote.

Economists also don’t expect many answers from Powell during his press conference. They expect him to reiterate the committee’s reluctance to make any decisions until on-again, off-again tariff policy becomes more definitive.