Accurately predicting seasonal changes in coastal sea levels is crucial for managing flood risks, yet current forecasting techniques face significant challenges. In a new NOAA-led study published in the Journal of Climate, experts from NOAA labs, cooperative institutes and operational centers work with an international team of scientists to evaluate and improve these forecasts. Using a combination of statistical and dynamical forecast systems, including NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory models and observational datasets from NOAA’s National Ocean Service, the study assessed skill levels in predicting coastal sea levels at key U.S. tide gauge locations. While models show some predictive capability, particularly in regions influenced by ENSO, challenges remain in capturing local sea level variations due to model limitations and initialization uncertainties. The study highlights the need for more tailored coastal forecasting approaches, integrating multiple data sources and advanced downscaling techniques, to better anticipate and mitigate coastal flooding risks.
