Everyone On Wall Street Is Watching for Nvidia’s Earnings. Here’s Why

Nvidia (NVDA), the poster child of Wall Street’s AI craze, is set to report quarterly earnings amid rising investor uncertainty about the U.S. economy, politics, and the economics of AI.

The earnings report, due after markets close Wednesday, could be a wrecking ball slamming into an antsy stock market. Or it could be the fuel needed to revive a sputtering AI rally: Nvidia has been the prime beneficiary of the AI buildout of the last two years and any deceleration or acceleration in investment should show up in its results.

All of Wall Street will be scrutinizing sales of the chipmaker’s Blackwell platform. Nvidia executives repeatedly have said demand for Blackwell has outstripped supply. Nvidia is expected to report that quarterly sales grew more than 70% to $38 billion and net income jumped more than 60% to $21 billion, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. 

First Nvidia Earnings Since DeepSeek Jolt

This is the company’s first earnings report since Chinese startup DeepSeek shook AI stocks with an open-source model it claimed matched the performance of advanced US models at a fraction of the cost. The ensuing sell-off wiped a record $589 billion off Nvidia’s market value as investors worried that tech companies may slow their spending on Nvidia chips to instead focus on cost efficiency.

However, DeepSeek’s impact—if there is any—is unlikely to appear in Nvidia’s next set of backward-looking numbers, which will cover the three months ended Jan. 26, the day before the DeepSeek sell-off.

With a market capitalization of more than $3 trillion, Nvidia has more influence on the S&P 500 than any stock but Apple (AAPL). Still, Nvidia stock dipped nearly 7% across the three sessions after its November earnings report even as the S&P 500 ticked higher on each of those days.

And last August, Nvidia shares plunged more than 6% the day after the company’s results, but most big tech stocks rose and the S&P 500 finished flat. 

High expectations heading into Nvidia’s earnings have led to disappointment on Wall Street. Even if Nvidia beats investors expectations on Wednesday, it may not be enough to make the stock pop.

Recent Losses Among AI Stocks Beyond Nvidia

Ultimately, the AI trade’s recent fragility could be what makes this report particularly consequential for the broader stock market. Concerns about tariffs, stubborn inflation, and elevated interest rates have weighed on stocks generally in the past week, but highflying stocks linked to AI have been hit particularly hard. 

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stock, which slumped last week amid reports of possible military budget cuts, has lost about 30% of its value in the last five sessions. Nuclear power provider Vistra (VST) and AI marketing software firm Applovin (APP) have shed some 20% and 24%, respectively, in the same period. All three stocks had at least tripled in value in the 12 months before their recent pullback.

And there’s plenty of uncertainty on the horizon. Investors may be wondering if DeepSeek will change domestic demand for Nvidia’s chips or prompt the Trump administration to further restrict what technology can be sold to China, concerns that could cast a shadow over generally upbeat results.