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Hospitals already overflowing this winter amid what experts have deemed a “quademic” could face even more occupancy issues and — deadly consequences — within the next decade.
The nation is on track for a critical hospital bed shortage by 2032, researchers said Wednesday. The shortage is largely driven by a reduction of staffed hospital beds, potentially preventing life-saving care for patients.
“We’ve all heard about increased hospital occupancy during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, but these findings show that hospitals are as full, if not more so, than they were during the pandemic, even well into 2024 during what would be considered a post-pandemic steady state,” Dr. Richard Leuchter, assistant professor of medicine at UCLA Health, said in a statement.
Geffen is the lead investigator of a related study published in the journal JAMA Network Open.
The research found that the national hospital occupancy average following the Covid-19 pandemic is significantly higher, rising from 64 percent to 75 percent.
To track this increase, they used hospital occupancy data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They combined data between August 2020 and April 2024 with national hospitalization rates and the U.S. Census Bureau’s official population projections to model future hospital occupancy scenarios through 2035.
Hospital occupancy is determined by dividing the number of patients being cared for by the number of staffed hospital beds. By analyzing this data, the authors found that the newly increased baseline in occupancy is primarily driven by a 16 percent reduction in the number of staffed hospital beds than by an increase in hospitalizations.
“We’ve all heard about increased hospital occupancy during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, but these findings show that hospitals are as full, if not more so, than they were during the pandemic, even well into 2024 during what would be considered a post-pandemic steady state,” said Leuchter.
The current national hospital occupancy average of 75 percent is “dangerously close to a bed shortage,” researchers say. It doesn’t provide enough of a buffer between unexpected surges, fluctuations and other factors. When intensive care unit occupancy reaches that amount, there are 12,000 excess deaths nationwide two weeks later, said Leuchter.
To model future capacity, the authors calculated the number of expected hospitalizations each year between 2025 and 2035. They found that, should rates and supply not change, average national hospital occupancy could reach 85 percent by 2032 for adult hospital beds.
To avert such a crisis, several steps could be taken. Those include preventing more hospital bankruptcies and closures, addressing factors driving staff shortages, and changing policy. Without that, there could likely be dire repercussions. Tens of thousands of Americans a year already die from a lack of medical insurance.
“If the U.S. were to sustain a national hospital occupancy of 85 percent or greater, it is likely that we would see tens to hundreds of thousands of excess American deaths each year,” Leuchter explained.
