Trump and Putin Discuss End to War in Ukraine: Live Updates

But on Wednesday, things went from bad to worse. Mr. Trump’s defense secretary delivered a harsh assessment of Ukraine’s prospects in its war with Russia. Then Mr. Trump announced that he had spoken with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, a call Mr. Trump characterized as the opening of talks to end the war — with no clear role for Mr. Zelensky.

The phone call also spelled the end of American efforts to isolate Russia diplomatically after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago

“He’s on his heels geopolitically,” Cliff Kupchan, chairman of Eurasia Group, a risk analysis firm based in Washington, said of Mr. Zelensky.

Mr. Trump’s actions in the last two days — which also included a prisoner swap with the Kremlin that freed an American teacher — signaled a thawing relationship between the United States and Russia that could favor Mr. Putin in a peace deal while leaving Ukraine on the sidelines.

Mr. Trump also called the Ukrainian leader on Wednesday, but in a social media post he did not mention how, or if, Mr. Zelensky would figure in peace talks.

Mr. Zelensky will meet with Mr. Vance and the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, at the annual Munich Security Conference, which opens on Friday, Mr. Trump said.

Negotiations to end the deadliest war in Europe in generations will shape the future of Ukraine, and the recent developments mean some of its territory likely to remain under Russian occupation.

And they will shape Mr. Zelensky’s political future. He has little choice but to go along with American-led talks despite his deep skepticism, shared by most Ukrainians, of Mr. Putin’s readiness to negotiate without imposing onerous conditions or bringing more military and economic pressure to bear.

By Thursday morning, it was a sentiment swirling widely in Kyiv, a city now hit nightly with Russian missiles and exploding drones.

Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst, wrote on Facebook that Mr. Putin was most likely playing the Trump administration for time. “He is not going to compromise on ending the war, as Trump’s team wants,” he wrote.

Mr. Trump wasn’t the only one to deliver sobering news to Ukraine. The new U.S. secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, told European allies on Wednesday that it was “unrealistic” for Ukraine to return to its borders as they were before Russia’s military invasion began in 2014.

And he added that the United States did not support Ukraine’s goal of joining NATO to secure any peace settlement, calling it “unrealistic.”

Mr. Zelensky has played weak hands well before. In the opening days of Russia’s invasion, he popped out of a bunker to film selfie videos that rallied his country, and much of the world, to Ukraine’s cause.

Now he is again facing a pivotal moment for his country in a diminished position, sinking in domestic polls and getting a cold shoulder from his most important ally.

Mr. Zelensky has twice in recent days said he is willing to negotiate with Mr. Putin if Western allies offer security guarantees in a settlement. In his nightly address to the nation Wednesday, the Ukrainian leader was conciliatory, saying he had a “good and detailed discussion” with Mr. Trump.

“We discussed many aspects — diplomatic, military, economic — and President Trump informed me of what Putin had told him,” he added. “We believe that America’s strength is sufficient to pressure Russia and Putin into peace, together with us, together with all our partners.”

Mr. Putin, for his part, has signaled that Mr. Zelensky would need to face an election at home before Russia would accept his signature on a peace deal.

The demand suggests a Russian view of a potential three-step process for negotiating a settlement to the war, according to a person who has had recent conversations about settlement scenarios with senior Russian officials.

. It envisions an initial truce and preliminary deal, followed by elections in Ukraine and only then a binding peace settlement, said the person, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

There have been some bright spots for Ukraine. Soon after his inauguration, Mr. Trump criticized Mr. Putin harshly, saying he was “destroying” Russia with the war.

And while Mr. Trump’s claim on Ukraine’s minerals comes at a big cost for Kyiv, it has also been viewed by Ukrainian officials as a hopeful sign.

The talks on mineral rights, which began on Wednesday with a visit to Kyiv by the American Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, open a path for Mr. Trump to continue military aid while claiming to have secured a benefit for the United States.

“They’ve essentially agreed to do that, so at least we don’t feel stupid,” Mr. Trump said of Ukraine’s willingness to yield its natural resources, in an interview with Fox News that aired on Monday. “Otherwise, we’re stupid. I said to them, ‘We have to get something. We cannot continue to pay this money.’ ”

That was before Russia and the United States showed a new willingness to work together. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump’s friend and envoy, Steve Witkoff, flew a private jet into Moscow to retrieve an imprisoned American teacher, Marc Fogel, a notable gesture of conciliation by Moscow. In return, the Kremlin said, the United States would deliver a Russian cybercriminal, Alexander Vinnik, back to Russia.

Mr. Zelensky has rejected Mr. Putin’s repeated claims that he is an illegitimate leader, and that Ukraine needs to lift martial law and hold elections. (Ukrainian elections were delayed under martial law after Russia invaded in 2022. Mr. Zelensky’s five-year term, which would have expired last May, was extended under the law.)

Ukrainian officials say they view the Russian demand for democratic elections as part of a ploy to destabilize the government and compel Ukraine to let its guard down for a vote. They have urged the Trump administration not to endorse the idea.

“It is the Russians who are raising the topic of elections because they need their man in Ukraine,” Mr. Zelensky said in an interview with the British broadcaster ITV News that aired last weekend. “If we suspend martial law, we may lose the army. And the Russians will be happy because the qualities of spirit and combat capability will be lost.”

Inside Ukraine, however, his domestic opponents are quietly preparing for a possible campaign.

Despite his diminished status going into talks, it is too early to write off Mr. Zelensky, a former actor and an adept leader in a crisis, Mr. Kupchan, the Eurasia analyst, said. “He’s proven to be quite a skilled counterpuncher,” he said. “I don’t feel we’re in the final act of any play yet.”

Mr. Zelensky is preparing for talks as the momentum on the main front of the war, in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, has favored Russia for more than a year. It is unclear for how long Russia can sustain extraordinarily high casualties, which have been estimated by military analysts as at least in the hundreds daily.

And Ukraine is entering talks with one bit of leverage: its control over a few hundred square miles of Russian territory in the Kursk region captured last summer, an incursion that was deeply embarrassing to the Kremlin. Mr. Zelensky said he wants to trade territory in Kursk for Russian-held Ukrainian land, something Mr. Putin would almost certainly resist.

If the momentum of a few dozen or hundreds of yards of advances per day continued through negotiations, it would give an advantage to Moscow. Then, any delay by Ukraine in accepting cease-fire terms would cost Kyiv territory.

Russia’s progress has, though, slowed since November in month-on-month measures of captured territory, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based analytical group.

In January, for example, Russia captured about 40 fewer square miles than in December, the institute reported. Military analysts have cautioned it is not possible to determine how significant that decline is.

Anton Troianovski contributed reporting.