KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The International Energy Agency on Thursday raised its projection for 2025 oil demand growth slightly, with China continuing to drive the increase—though at a smaller pace than in the past.
- The Paris-based agency said Thursday that it expects global oil demand to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day.
- Last year’s oil demand growth was at 870,000 B/D.
The International Energy Agency on Thursday raised its projection for 2025 oil demand growth slightly, with China continuing to drive the increase—though at a smaller pace than in the past.
The Paris-based agency said Thursday that it expects global oil demand to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day versus the 1.05 million B/D it forecast last month. That compares to 870,000 B/D in 2024, a figure that has been revised downward.
China’s Share of Oil Demand Growth Falls to Fraction of Past Increase
China’s pace of oil demand expansion is “a fraction of recent trends and driven almost entirely by its petrochemical sector,” the IEA said, adding that India and other emerging Asian economies are taking up rising shares. China’s share of the global increase has fallen to 19%, well below 60% in the preceding decade, the IEA said.
The IEA said it was “still too early” to gauge either the impact of U.S. tariffs or increased sanctions on Iran and Russia.
U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports to the United States. The rate was lower than the sweeping 25% levies on all other goods from Canada and Mexico. The tariffs have been paused for a month.
Brent crude futures are trading at around $74 per barrel Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate futures are at about $70.
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